---
title: "STRIKE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "STRIKE ($4.72) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 37 items with odds, observed 81.53% over 2,688 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [STRIKE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · STRIKE

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike?window=all)

Price · $4.72

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $4.13 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.53% · 2,688 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 71.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 83.47% ±14.47 332 openings

7 days · 82.05% ±5.51 2,258 openings

30 days · 81.53% ±5.03 2,688 openings

since tracking started · 81.53% ±5.03 2,688 openings

68.5% 83.5% 98.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.72% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (76.49% – 86.56%, 2,688 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike?window=24h) | 332 | 83.47% ±14.5 | −0.6σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike?window=7d) | 2,258 | 82.05% ±5.51 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike) | 2,688 | 81.53% ±5.03 | −2.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/strike?window=all) | 2,688 | 81.53% ±5.03 | −2.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,693 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $467 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $136 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $101 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $74.91 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $64.31 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-bullet-queen-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $61.62 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $41.37 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.3 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-redline-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $29.96 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $23.67 | 0.5% | 5 | 2.4 | 2.06× |
| [AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-frontside-misty-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $20.29 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.74× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 227 | $15.31 | 1.6% | 5 | 11.8 | 0.42× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 227 | $15.28 | 1.6% | 5 | 11.8 | 0.42× |
| [M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 73 | $14.98 | 5.0% | 44 | 36.9 | 1.19× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 213 | $14.83 | 1.7% | 11 | 12.7 | 0.87× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 139 | $14.28 | 2.5% | 9 | 19.4 | 0.46× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $14.20 | 2.5% | 14 | 19.7 | 0.71× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 60 | $10.60 | 4.3% | 24 | 45.0 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 79 | $9.66 | 3.0% | 22 | 34.2 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 30 | $7.50 | 6.0% | 45 | 89.7 | 0.50× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-battle-scarred) | 1 in 30 | $7.50 | 6.0% | 52 | 89.7 | 0.58× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 35 | $6.80 | 4.7% | 49 | 77.6 | 0.63× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $6.59 | 3.5% | 26 | 58.7 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 45 | $6.54 | 3.5% | 46 | 59.8 | 0.77× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $6.22 | 3.7% | 35 | 66.0 | 0.53× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $5.25 | 6.1% | 83 | 129.8 | 0.64× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) | 1 in 36 | $4.64 | 3.1% | 68 | 75.1 | 0.91× |
| [FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $3.87 | 3.3% | 62 | 94.3 | 0.66× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-olympus-field-tested) | 1 in 18 | $3.64 | 5.0% | 139 | 151.6 | 0.92× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 17 | $3.44 | 4.8% | 131 | 155.1 | 0.84× |
| [Sticker \| Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) | 1 in 16 | $2.84 | 4.3% | 171 | 167.5 | 1.02× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crimson Foil (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crimson-foil-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $2.67 | 4.1% | 174 | 171.5 | 1.01× |
| [Souvenir MP9 \| Music Box (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mp9-music-box-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $2.40 | 3.9% | 202 | 179.1 | 1.13× |
| [Sticker \| Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) | 1 in 15 | $2.25 | 3.7% | 191 | 183.7 | 1.04× |
| [SG 553 \| Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $1.22 | 2.6% | 251 | 234.8 | 1.07× |
| [MP9 \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $1.03 | 2.3% | 278 | 251.3 | 1.11× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) | 1 in 22 | $1.00 | 1.1% | 95 | 123.1 | 0.77× |
| [AUG \| Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $0.94 | 1.1% | 111 | 132.2 | 0.84× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/strike`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=strike)

[Sticker | Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $4.72 $2.25 0.48x 2026-11-11 13:14 UTC

[Sticker | Lorena sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lorena) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $4.72 $2.36 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[Sticker | Chrome Dome sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-chrome-dome) Hidden $4.72 $2.72 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.72 $5.21 1.10x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[MP9 | Army Sheen (Minimal Wear) weapon · Consumer Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-army-sheen-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.72 $1.04 0.22x 2026-11-11 13:13 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance) [m0nesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0nesy) $4.72 $0.97 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-field-tested) [m0nesy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0nesy) $4.72 $0.94 0.20x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[AUG | Surveillance (Minimal Wear) weapon · grey](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-surveillance-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.72 $1.00 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[SG 553 | Lush Ruins (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-lush-ruins-factory-new) Hidden $4.72 $1.18 0.25x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

[FAMAS | ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-zx-spectron-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.72 $6.63 1.40x 2026-11-11 12:36 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $4.72 | 87.50% | 37 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $4.72 | 87.72% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $4.72 | 87.90% | 37 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $4.72 | 87.70% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $4.72 | 87.68% | 37 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $4.72 | 87.58% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $4.72 | 87.77% | 37 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $4.72 | 87.80% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $4.72 | 87.84% | 37 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $4.72 | 87.76% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $4.72 | 87.73% | 37 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $4.72 | 87.82% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $4.72 | 87.48% | 37 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.72 | 87.87% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $4.72 | 87.82% | 37 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $4.72 | 87.69% | 37 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $4.72 | 87.98% | 37 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 0.1% classified 17.5% Legendary 1.3% pink 25.7% violet 15.5% #d32ee6 2.2% #8847ff 3.5% blue 6.7% gray 13.6% Consumer Grade 9.3% grey 4.6% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt