---
title: "SUNBLAST case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SUNBLAST ($18.67) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 107 items with odds, observed 85.57% over 1,522 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SUNBLAST](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SUNBLAST

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast?window=all)

Price · $18.67

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $16.34 from 107 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.57% · 1,522 openings, odds method

Variance · 4.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 14.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 62.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 71.82% ±33.34 161 openings

7 days · 85.96% ±12.78 1,271 openings

30 days · 85.57% ±11.74 1,522 openings

since tracking started · 85.57% ±11.74 1,522 openings

38.0% 72.0% 106.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast?window=24h) | 161 | 71.82% ±33.3 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast?window=7d) | 1,271 | 85.96% ±12.8 | −0.2σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast) | 1,522 | 85.57% ±11.7 | −0.3σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunblast?window=all) | 1,522 | 85.57% ±11.7 | −0.3σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 107 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,522 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Hedge Maze (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,286 | $2,677 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $1,328 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 16,667 | $876 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $858 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $774 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-crimson-web-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11,111 | $727 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $589 | 0.9% | 2 | 0.4 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 12,500 | $533 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25,000 | $492 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $440 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $401 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-factory-new) | 1 in 9,091 | $370 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $366 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 7,143 | $360 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-well-worn) | 1 in 6,667 | $311 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 14,286 | $289 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,545 | $287 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $285 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-factory-new) | 1 in 16,667 | $246 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $240 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $239 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-minimal-wear) | 1 in 7,692 | $229 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,571 | $222 | 0.4% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Field-Tested) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $218 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,167 | $209 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-well-worn) | 1 in 4,167 | $207 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new) | 1 in 1,282 | $193 | 0.9% | 4 | 1.2 | 3.37× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 20,000 | $189 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Driver Gloves \| Crimson Weave (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/driver-gloves-crimson-weave-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,235 | $188 | 0.9% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 3,226 | $180 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-well-worn) | 1 in 3,448 | $168 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Omega (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-omega-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,125 | $162 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-well-worn) | 1 in 3,846 | $157 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-field-tested) | 1 in 3,846 | $155 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,762 | $154 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,348 | $146 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 4,167 | $144 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Big Game (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-big-game-battle-scarred) | 1 in 3,030 | $139 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.5 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 3,571 | $133 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 820 | $124 | 0.9% | 3 | 1.9 | 1.62× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-factory-new) | 1 in 7,143 | $112 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-factory-new) | 1 in 8,333 | $111 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 2,326 | $109 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-well-worn) | 1 in 2,128 | $105 | 0.3% | 1 | 0.7 | — |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,587 | $89.57 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,857 | $89.33 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 1 in 3,030 | $84.18 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 2,439 | $82.41 | 0.2% | 1 | 0.6 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,083 | $76.89 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.7 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-well-worn) | 1 in 1,818 | $71.65 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $63.53 | 2.6% | 5 | 10.2 | 0.49× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $59.95 | 3.0% | 5 | 12.5 | 0.40× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-minimal-wear) | 1 in 131 | $56.08 | 2.6% | 1 | 11.6 | 0.09× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-field-tested) | 1 in 78 | $48.05 | 3.8% | 11 | 19.5 | 0.56× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $46.43 | 2.9% | 6 | 15.6 | 0.38× |
| [MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-stalker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $46.01 | 2.9% | 11 | 15.9 | 0.69× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 95 | $43.99 | 2.8% | 17 | 16.0 | 1.06× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 89 | $39.83 | 2.8% | 14 | 17.2 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $37.64 | 4.9% | 28 | 32.5 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $37.37 | 2.9% | 23 | 19.5 | 1.18× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 69 | $37.31 | 3.3% | 24 | 22.2 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-neo-noir-well-worn) | 1 in 67 | $36.92 | 3.4% | 13 | 22.7 | 0.57× |
| [AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $36.92 | 5.0% | 36 | 33.8 | 1.07× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-minimal-wear) | 1 in 134 | $32.77 | 1.5% | 11 | 11.3 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-neo-noir-battle-scarred) | 1 in 54 | $31.14 | 3.5% | 20 | 28.1 | 0.71× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-factory-new) | 17.7% | $23.95 | 25.9% | 173 | 269.1 | 0.64× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-factory-new) | 1 in 450 | $15.48 | 0.2% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 151 | $14.25 | 0.6% | 9 | 10.1 | 0.89× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-well-worn) | 1 in 142 | $13.65 | 0.6% | 13 | 10.7 | 1.21× |
| [P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 138 | $13.40 | 0.6% | 4 | 11.0 | 0.36× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-factory-new) | 1 in 1,299 | $12.31 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.85× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-factory-new) | 1 in 746 | $8.93 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.0 | 0.98× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 251 | $8.74 | 0.2% | 3 | 6.1 | 0.50× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-minimal-wear) | 1 in 175 | $8.48 | 0.3% | 6 | 8.7 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-factory-new) | 1 in 538 | $7.95 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.71× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-field-tested) | 1 in 129 | $6.93 | 0.3% | 4 | 11.8 | 0.34× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-well-worn) | 1 in 123 | $6.70 | 0.3% | 8 | 12.4 | 0.65× |
| [FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-rapid-eye-movement-battle-scarred) | 1 in 122 | $6.67 | 0.3% | 10 | 12.5 | 0.80× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $4.74 | 0.3% | 16 | 15.2 | 1.06× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-minimal-wear) | 1 in 263 | $4.45 | 0.1% | 5 | 5.8 | 0.86× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-well-worn) | 1 in 83 | $4.18 | 0.3% | 15 | 18.3 | 0.82× |
| [Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chromatic-aberration-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76 | $3.94 | 0.3% | 14 | 20.0 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 207 | $3.59 | 0.1% | 3 | 7.4 | 0.41× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-minimal-wear) | 1 in 160 | $3.00 | 0.1% | 2 | 9.5 | 0.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 119 | $2.90 | 0.1% | 5 | 12.8 | 0.39× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-factory-new) | 1 in 86 | $2.82 | 0.2% | 12 | 17.7 | 0.68× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-factory-new) | 1 in 130 | $2.52 | 0.1% | 15 | 11.7 | 1.28× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $1.78 | 0.2% | 10 | 22.8 | 0.44× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $1.72 | 0.1% | 18 | 20.7 | 0.87× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $1.62 | 0.1% | 10 | 22.6 | 0.44× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-field-tested) | 1 in 64 | $1.57 | 0.1% | 16 | 23.7 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) | 1 in 70 | $1.56 | 0.1% | 14 | 21.7 | 0.64× |
| [XM1014 \| Seasons (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-seasons-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $1.54 | 0.2% | 16 | 24.4 | 0.66× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $1.45 | 0.2% | 29 | 36.1 | 0.80× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $1.37 | 0.2% | 17 | 31.1 | 0.55× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $1.37 | 0.2% | 25 | 30.8 | 0.81× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-field-tested) | 1 in 48 | $1.36 | 0.2% | 24 | 31.5 | 0.76× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $1.28 | 0.2% | 25 | 37.5 | 0.67× |
| [Negev \| Power Loader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-battle-scarred) | 1 in 39 | $1.25 | 0.2% | 20 | 38.8 | 0.52× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $1.22 | 0.2% | 27 | 36.6 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-well-worn) | 1 in 48 | $1.22 | 0.2% | 21 | 31.4 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-battle-scarred) | 1 in 48 | $1.22 | 0.2% | 27 | 31.4 | 0.86× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) | 1 in 40 | $1.19 | 0.2% | 18 | 38.1 | 0.47× |
| [M4A4 \| Turbine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-turbine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 38 | $1.15 | 0.2% | 39 | 40.5 | 0.96× |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $1.12 | 0.2% | 28 | 35.8 | 0.78× |
| [M4A1-S \| Electrum (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $1.03 | 0.3% | 43 | 60.4 | 0.71× |
| [UMP-45 \| Late Night Transit (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-late-night-transit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $0.80 | 0.4% | 77 | 117.3 | 0.66× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/sunblast`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) [gukawa CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gukawa%20CSGOSKINS) $18.67 $594 31.80x 2026-11-09 22:03 UTC

[AK-47 | Jet Set (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-jet-set-minimal-wear) [gukawa CSGOSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/gukawa%20CSGOSKINS) $18.67 $594 31.80x 2026-11-09 22:02 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=sunblast)

[M4A1-S | Electrum weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum) [AlaneKK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AlaneKK) $18.67 $1.55 0.08x 2026-11-11 10:49 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) [AlaneKK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AlaneKK) $18.67 $1.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC

[Negev | Power Loader (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-power-loader-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.67 $1.12 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-well-worn) Hidden $18.67 $1.03 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) Hidden $18.67 $1.12 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.67 $1.31 0.07x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-heat-treated-well-worn) Hidden $18.67 $1.18 0.06x 2026-11-11 10:48 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $18.67 $1.25 0.07x 2026-11-11 05:54 UTC

[AWP | Pit Viper (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-minimal-wear) [deadtree](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/deadtree) $18.67 $1.56 0.08x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

[M4A1-S | Electrum (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-electrum-field-tested) Hidden $18.67 $1.45 0.08x 2026-11-11 05:50 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $18.67 | 87.50% | 107 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $18.67 | 87.08% | 107 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $18.67 | 87.39% | 107 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $18.67 | 87.52% | 107 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $18.67 | 87.73% | 107 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $18.67 | 87.59% | 107 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $18.67 | 86.94% | 107 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $18.67 | 87.80% | 107 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $18.67 | 87.20% | 107 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $18.67 | 87.59% | 107 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $18.67 | 87.93% | 107 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $18.67 | 87.98% | 107 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $18.67 | 87.66% | 107 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $18.67 | 87.32% | 107 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $18.67 | 87.55% | 107 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $18.67 | 87.95% | 107 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $18.67 | 87.00% | 107 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $18.67 | 87.57% | 107 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed extraordinary 0.3% covert 12.3% gold 0.1% classified 20.8% rare 0.0% Immortal 0.1% red 2.3% Ancient 4.3% #8847ff 4.7% Legendary 2.7% pink 11.7% Mythical 1.0% violet 15.6% restricted 14.4% uncommon 0.8% Rare 1.2% blue 7.7% best hit $594 (31.80x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt