--- title: "SUNSHINE JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SUNSHINE JOKER ($7.19) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 83.74% over 6,049 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T13:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SUNSHINE JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SUNSHINE JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker?window=all) Price · $7.19 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 83.74% · 6,049 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 827 openings · below min 7 days · 85.87% ±6.33 5,163 openings 30 days · 83.74% ±5.75 6,049 openings since tracking started · 83.74% ±5.75 6,049 openings 74.0% 91.5% 109.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker?window=24h) | 827 | 91.55% ±16.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker?window=7d) | 5,163 | 85.87% ±6.33 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker) | 6,049 | 83.74% ±5.75 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine-joker?window=all) | 6,049 | 83.74% ±5.75 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=sunshine-joker) [UMP-45 | Continuum weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum) [toaaal.\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/toaaal._) $7.29 $0.63 0.09x 2026-11-11 13:36 UTC [Galil AR | Galigator weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator) [toaaal.\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/toaaal._) $7.29 $0.87 0.12x 2026-11-11 13:35 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) [toaaal.\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/toaaal._) $7.29 $0.23 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $7.29 $0.20 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:27 UTC [Zeus x27 | Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $7.29 $0.82 0.11x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [Galil AR | Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $7.29 $0.45 0.06x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [USP-S | PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) [Pièrre Sanchèz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Pi%C3%A8rre%20Sanch%C3%A8z) $7.29 $0.23 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:20 UTC [M4A1-S | Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) [Billi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Billi) $7.29 $8.32 1.14x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) [Bonk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bonk) $7.29 $74.52 10.22x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC [M4A1-S | Emphorosaur-S weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s) [Billi](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Billi) $7.29 $0.71 0.10x 2026-11-11 12:17 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.74 on average: an expected loss of $16.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt