---
title: "SUNSHINE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SUNSHINE ($0.40) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 40 items with odds, observed 80.17% over 27.3K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SUNSHINE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SUNSHINE

A case on Key-Drop (FARM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine?window=all)

Price · $0.40

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.35 from 40 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 80.17% · 27.3K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 36.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 77.5% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 82.79% ±6.02 3,354 openings

7 days · 79.93% ±2.31 21.6K openings

30 days · 80.17% ±2.04 27.3K openings

since tracking started · 80.17% ±2.04 27.3K openings

76.0% 82.8% 89.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 85.48% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.12% – 82.21%, 27,328 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine?window=24h) | 3,354 | 82.79% ±6.02 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine?window=7d) | 21.6K | 79.93% ±2.31 | −4.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine) | 27.3K | 80.17% ±2.04 | −5.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/sunshine?window=all) | 27.3K | 80.17% ±2.04 | −5.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 40 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $84.14 | 0.7% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $54.81 | 1.1% | 0 | 1.9 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aphrodite-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $13.09 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $8.40 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.7 | 1.09× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-well-worn) | 1 in 20,000 | $7.01 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $6.54 | 0.9% | 7 | 13.7 | 0.51× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.29 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.7 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $5.04 | 0.1% | 2 | 2.7 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Green Energy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-green-energy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 6,667 | $3.70 | 0.2% | 2 | 4.1 | 0.49× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-well-worn) | 1 in 452 | $1.56 | 1.0% | 28 | 60.5 | 0.46× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-battle-scarred) | 1 in 391 | $1.45 | 1.1% | 38 | 70.1 | 0.54× |
| [MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-ruby-poison-dart-field-tested) | 1 in 318 | $1.31 | 1.2% | 34 | 86.0 | 0.40× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Minimal Wear) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-minimal-wear) | 1 in 680 | $1.12 | 0.5% | 13 | 40.3 | 0.32× |
| [Galil AR \| Galigator (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-well-worn) | 1 in 167 | $0.91 | 1.6% | 50 | 163.8 | 0.31× |
| [Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-clear-polymer-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $0.91 | 3.2% | 78 | 338.9 | 0.23× |
| [Galil AR \| Galigator (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-galigator-field-tested) | 1 in 146 | $0.85 | 1.7% | 67 | 187.7 | 0.36× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-minimal-wear) | 1 in 559 | $0.85 | 0.4% | 35 | 49.0 | 0.71× |
| [Zeus x27 \| Tosai (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/zeus-x27-tosai-minimal-wear) | 1 in 73 | $0.82 | 3.2% | 252 | 375.9 | 0.67× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-field-tested) | 1 in 128 | $0.66 | 1.5% | 67 | 214.5 | 0.31× |
| [StatTrak™ M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.65 | 3.2% | 120 | 474.3 | 0.25× |
| [SSG 08 \| Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) | 1 in 56 | $0.63 | 3.2% | 263 | 489.1 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Well-Worn) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-well-worn) | 1 in 208 | $0.62 | 0.9% | 45 | 131.5 | 0.34× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-field-tested) | 1 in 176 | $0.57 | 0.9% | 42 | 155.6 | 0.27× |
| [UMP-45 \| Continuum (Well-Worn) weapon · common](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-continuum-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $0.56 | 1.7% | 84 | 297.8 | 0.28× |
| [M4A1-S \| Emphorosaur-S (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-emphorosaur-s-battle-scarred) | 1 in 158 | $0.54 | 1.0% | 50 | 173.2 | 0.29× |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $0.53 | 3.2% | 183 | 581.7 | 0.31× |
| [M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) | 1 in 42 | $0.47 | 3.2% | 1,570 | 655.6 | 2.39× |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.45 | 3.2% | 499 | 684.7 | 0.73× |
| [Galil AR \| Connexion (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-connexion-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $0.45 | 3.2% | 545 | 684.7 | 0.80× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-battle-scarred) | 1 in 131 | $0.41 | 0.9% | 48 | 209.9 | 0.23× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $0.39 | 2.7% | 100 | 664.4 | 0.15× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $0.39 | 2.7% | 80 | 664.4 | 0.12× |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $0.27 | 6.9% | 2,583 | 2437.6 | 1.06× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.27 | 6.9% | 2,529 | 2437.6 | 1.04× |
| [SSG 08 \| Memorial (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-memorial-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 6.7% | 2,817 | 2456.0 | 1.15× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 6.7% | 2,734 | 2456.0 | 1.11× |
| [Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-dark-sigil-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.26 | 6.7% | 2,681 | 2456.0 | 1.09× |
| [Sticker \| Eyes of Farlow sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eyes-of-farlow) | 1 in 11 | $0.23 | 6.0% | 2,919 | 2517.1 | 1.16× |
| [SCAR-20 \| Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $0.21 | 5.6% | 2,845 | 2563.1 | 1.11× |
| [StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $0.20 | 5.4% | 2,581 | 2588.3 | 1.00× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/sunshine`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=sunshine)

[StatTrak™ M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m249-downtown-field-tested) [Che Guevara](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Che%20Guevara) $0.40 $0.65 1.63x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Poultrygeist (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-poultrygeist-factory-new) [Che Guevara](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Che%20Guevara) $0.40 $0.21 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [Che Guevara](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Che%20Guevara) $0.40 $0.20 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Hideout (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-hideout-factory-new) [Che Guevara](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Che%20Guevara) $0.40 $0.27 0.68x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[StatTrak™ Negev | Drop Me (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-negev-drop-me-minimal-wear) [Che Guevara](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Che%20Guevara) $0.40 $0.20 0.50x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $0.40 $0.47 1.17x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Sticker | Eyes of Farlow sticker · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-eyes-of-farlow) Hidden $0.40 $0.23 0.58x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-well-worn) Hidden $0.40 $0.41 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) Hidden $0.40 $0.42 1.05x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC

[M249 | Downtown (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-downtown-field-tested) [Marines](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Marines) $0.40 $0.47 1.17x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.40 | 87.50% | 40 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.40 | 86.17% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.40 | 85.58% | 40 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.40 | 85.36% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.40 | 84.19% | 40 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.40 | 85.68% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.40 | 84.85% | 40 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.40 | 85.09% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.40 | 84.77% | 40 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.40 | 84.41% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.40 | 84.45% | 40 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.40 | 86.21% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.40 | 85.37% | 40 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.40 | 85.88% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.40 | 86.46% | 40 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.40 | 87.02% | 40 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.40 | 83.47% | 40 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed rare 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.0% classified 0.0% #d32ee6 0.1% Legendary 0.0% #d32ce6 0.0% violet 21.0% restricted 0.9% #8847ff 0.1% #4b69ff 1.2% gray 1.8% Restricted 0.5% Mythical 0.6% common 1.1% blue 63.7% Rare 9.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt