---
title: "SUPERNATURAL case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "SUPERNATURAL ($20.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.57% from 38 items with odds, observed 87.02% over 85.9K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:24Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SUPERNATURAL](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SUPERNATURAL

A case on Key-Drop (EVENT CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural?window=all)

Price · $20.00

Advertised RTP · 87.57% · EV $17.51 from 38 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.02% · 85.9K openings, odds method

Variance · 2.3× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86.84% ±1.22 58.9K openings

30 days · 87.02% ±1.01 85.9K openings

since tracking started · 87.02% ±1.01 85.9K openings

85.0% 86.8% 88.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural?window=7d) | 58.9K | 86.84% ±1.22 | −1.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural) | 85.9K | 87.02% ±1.01 | −1.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/supernatural?window=all) | 85.9K | 87.02% ±1.01 | −1.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 38 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 86.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,038 | 0.3% | 3 | 2.6 | 1.16× |
| [AK-47 \| Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,550 | 0.6% | 12 | 6.0 | 1.99× |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · gold · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,373 | 0.8% | 7 | 8.6 | 0.81× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,125 | 0.6% | 11 | 8.6 | 1.28× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $617 | 0.7% | 12 | 17.2 | 0.70× |
| [★ Hand Wraps \| Slaughter (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/hand-wraps-slaughter-well-worn) | 1 in 3,333 | $334 | 0.6% | 39 | 25.8 | 1.51× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Scarlet Shamagh (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-scarlet-shamagh-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $209 | 0.4% | 22 | 25.8 | 0.85× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 2,500 | $158 | 0.4% | 29 | 34.5 | 0.84× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $109 | 0.9% | 62 | 129.2 | 0.48× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-factory-new) | 1 in 286 | $92.02 | 1.8% | 225 | 301.6 | 0.75× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $78.93 | 0.5% | 78 | 94.8 | 0.82× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-well-worn) | 1 in 909 | $77.41 | 0.5% | 64 | 94.8 | 0.68× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-ultraviolet-battle-scarred) | 1 in 833 | $74.69 | 0.5% | 75 | 103.4 | 0.73× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Black Limba (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-black-limba-factory-new) | 1 in 30 | $53.83 | 10.3% | 2,489 | 2886.5 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-field-tested) | 1 in 88 | $47.55 | 3.1% | 737 | 982.3 | 0.75× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 98 | $42.27 | 2.5% | 651 | 878.9 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 96 | $41.65 | 2.5% | 646 | 896.1 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 92 | $40.95 | 2.5% | 696 | 939.2 | 0.74× |
| [AUG \| Lil' Pig (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-lil-pig-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $35.05 | 7.5% | 3,139 | 3222.6 | 0.97× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 43 | $33.48 | 4.4% | 1,335 | 1981.8 | 0.67× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 87 | $31.14 | 2.0% | 663 | 990.9 | 0.67× |
| [MP7 \| Skulls (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-skulls-minimal-wear) | 1 in 23 | $24.64 | 6.2% | 3,687 | 3817.1 | 0.97× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $23.60 | 2.2% | 987 | 1421.7 | 0.69× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fatal-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $22.85 | 2.3% | 898 | 1516.5 | 0.59× |
| [Souvenir XM1014 \| Elegant Vines (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-xm1014-elegant-vines-minimal-wear) | 1 in 21 | $22.60 | 6.2% | 3,984 | 4153.2 | 0.96× |
| [P90 \| Virus (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-virus-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $20.70 | 6.2% | 4,290 | 4540.9 | 0.94× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $13.85 | 3.9% | 4,241 | 4282.4 | 0.99× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $12.10 | 3.6% | 4,756 | 4506.4 | 1.06× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $12.08 | 3.6% | 4,638 | 4506.4 | 1.03× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 40 | $11.75 | 1.7% | 1,440 | 2171.4 | 0.66× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $11.63 | 3.5% | 4,274 | 4566.7 | 0.94× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $10.36 | 1.8% | 1,735 | 2567.7 | 0.68× |
| [Sticker \| Lucas sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas) | 1 in 16 | $7.97 | 2.8% | 5,404 | 5368.1 | 1.01× |
| [FAMAS \| Doomkitty (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-doomkitty-field-tested) | 1 in 16 | $7.50 | 2.7% | 5,694 | 5480.1 | 1.04× |
| [Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $7.01 | 2.6% | 5,887 | 5592.1 | 1.05× |
| [Souvenir Nova \| Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) | 1 in 15 | $6.83 | 2.6% | 5,707 | 5652.4 | 1.01× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii CT sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-ct) | 1 in 14 | $5.95 | 2.4% | 6,224 | 5997.1 | 1.04× |
| [UMP-45 \| Plastique (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-plastique-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $5.04 | 2.1% | 6,587 | 6393.4 | 1.03× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/supernatural`, 9 Nov, 08:09 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [THIAGOPEEK](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/THIAGOPEEK) $20.00 $2,060 103.0x 2026-11-05 21:32 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $20.00 $2,038 101.9x 2026-11-08 23:36 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [hh =DDDDDDD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/hh%20%3DDDDDDDD) $20.00 $2,000 100.0x 2026-11-06 22:50 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [Gunn.E](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gunn.E) $20.00 $1,579 78.94x 2026-11-07 12:16 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $1,573 78.66x 2026-11-07 20:59 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $1,565 78.27x 2026-11-06 03:31 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $1,565 78.27x 2026-11-05 21:32 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $1,554 77.69x 2026-11-03 14:18 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) Hidden $20.00 $1,550 77.50x 2026-11-09 03:21 UTC

[AK-47 | Gold Arabesque (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-gold-arabesque-field-tested) [NO NAME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/NO%20NAME) $20.00 $1,419 70.94x 2026-11-04 10:45 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=supernatural)

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) [andreiJR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/andreiJR1) $20.00 $7.01 0.35x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[Souvenir Nova | Quick Sand (Well-Worn) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-nova-quick-sand-well-worn) Hidden $20.00 $6.83 0.34x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-melondrama-field-tested) [andreiJR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/andreiJR1) $20.00 $7.01 0.35x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) [andreiJR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/andreiJR1) $20.00 $12.10 0.61x 2026-11-09 09:00 UTC

[Sticker | Lucas sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lucas) Hidden $20.00 $7.97 0.40x 2026-11-09 08:59 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $20.00 $12.10 0.61x 2026-11-09 08:59 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) [andreiJR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/andreiJR1) $20.00 $12.10 0.61x 2026-11-09 08:59 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast) [Jcob7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jcob7) $20.00 $41.61 2.08x 2026-11-09 08:56 UTC

[Sawed-Off | Rust Coat (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-rust-coat-factory-new) [bistew](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/bistew) $20.00 $11.63 0.58x 2026-11-09 08:56 UTC

[AWP | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) [Jcob7](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Jcob7) $20.00 $41.65 2.08x 2026-11-09 08:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $20.00 | 87.57% | 38 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $20.00 | 87.51% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $20.00 | 87.39% | 38 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $20.00 | 87.62% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.51% | 38 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $20.00 | 87.39% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $20.00 | 87.64% | 38 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $20.00 | 87.94% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $20.00 | 87.42% | 38 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $20.00 | 87.60% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $20.00 | 87.51% | 38 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $20.00 | 87.50% | 38 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $20.00 | 87.68% | 38 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 2.4% gold 0.3% extraordinary 0.1% violet 29.8% blue 36.7% red 4.5% pink 19.4% classified 1.7% light blue 5.3% best hit $2,060 (103.0x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.57 on average: an expected loss of $12.43 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt