--- title: "SWAP JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "SWAP JOKER ($35.54) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 82.10% over 4,005 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T20:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SWAP JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SWAP JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker?window=all) Price · $35.54 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 82.10% · 4,005 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 201 openings · below min 7 days · 80.87% ±3.51 2,372 openings 30 days · 82.10% ±2.70 4,005 openings since tracking started · 82.10% ±2.70 4,005 openings 76.5% 90.0% 103.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker?window=24h) | 201 | 90.50% ±12.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker?window=7d) | 2,372 | 80.87% ±3.51 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker) | 4,005 | 82.10% ±2.70 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap-joker?window=all) | 4,005 | 82.10% ±2.70 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=swap-joker) [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [Chepixx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chepixx) $34.30 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) [Chepixx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chepixx) $34.30 $60.00 1.75x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [Chepixx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chepixx) $34.30 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:29 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) [Chepixx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chepixx) $34.30 $60.00 1.75x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [Chepixx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chepixx) $34.30 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) [Chepixx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chepixx) $34.30 $60.00 1.75x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.41 $61.94 1.75x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [Chepixx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chepixx) $35.41 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $35.41 $61.94 1.75x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) [Chepixx](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chepixx) $35.41 $61.94 1.75x 2026-11-11 20:28 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 82.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $82.10 on average: an expected loss of $17.90 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt