--- title: "SWAP case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "SWAP ($3.16) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.01% from 2 items with odds, observed 86.89% over 10.8K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap rendered: 2026-11-11T20:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SWAP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SWAP A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap?window=all) Price · $3.16 Advertised RTP · 87.01% · EV $2.75 from 2 items Observed RTP, 30d · 86.89% · 10.8K openings, odds method Variance · 16.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 23 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.6% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 96.94% ±18.11 1,947 openings 7 days · 91.36% ±9.02 7,698 openings 30 days · 86.89% ±7.62 10.8K openings since tracking started · 86.89% ±7.62 10.8K openings 78.0% 96.8% 115.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap?window=24h) | 1,947 | 96.94% ±18.1 | +1.1σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap?window=7d) | 7,698 | 91.36% ±9.02 | +0.9σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap) | 10.8K | 86.89% ±7.62 | −0.0σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/swap?window=all) | 10.8K | 86.89% ±7.62 | −0.0σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 2 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-lore-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $61.44 | 99.3% | 471 | 478.7 | 0.98× | | [Galil AR \| O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) | 95.6% | $0.02 | 0.7% | 10,301 | 10293.3 | 1.00× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/swap`, 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=swap) [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [LeitoniX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LeitoniX) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [LeitoniX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LeitoniX) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:26 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [LeitoniX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LeitoniX) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [LeitoniX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LeitoniX) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [LeitoniX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LeitoniX) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [LeitoniX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LeitoniX) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:21 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [亗4KUMA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E4%BA%974KUMA) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [LeitoniX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/LeitoniX) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:20 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) [亗4KUMA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E4%BA%974KUMA) $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC [Galil AR | O-Ranger (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-o-ranger-field-tested) Hidden $3.16 $0.02 0.01x 2026-11-11 20:19 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 11 Nov, 14:48 UTC | $3.16 | 87.01% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $3.16 | 87.02% | 2 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $3.16 | 87.01% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $3.16 | 87.01% | 2 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $3.16 | 87.01% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $3.16 | 87.02% | 2 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $3.16 | 86.81% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $3.16 | 87.09% | 2 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $3.16 | 87.09% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $3.16 | 87.08% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.16 | 87.07% | 2 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $3.16 | 87.06% | 2 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $3.16 | 87.06% | 2 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $3.16 | 86.64% | 2 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 4.4% light blue 95.6% best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.01 on average: an expected loss of $12.99 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt