---
title: "SYNERGY case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "SYNERGY ($12.46) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 11 items with odds, observed 90.11% over 7,820 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy
rendered: 2026-11-11T14:29Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [SYNERGY](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · SYNERGY

A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy?window=all)

Price · $12.46

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $10.90 from 11 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 90.11% · 7,820 openings, odds method

Variance · 7.8× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 20 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 76.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.86% ±16.09 1,154 openings

7 days · 93.08% ±6.89 6,370 openings

30 days · 90.11% ±6.24 7,820 openings

since tracking started · 90.11% ±6.24 7,820 openings

75.0% 91.8% 108.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy?window=24h) | 1,154 | 91.86% ±16.1 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy?window=7d) | 6,370 | 93.08% ±6.89 | +1.6σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy) | 7,820 | 90.11% ±6.24 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/synergy?window=all) | 7,820 | 90.11% ±6.24 | +0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 11 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,820 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,169 | 2.1% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 1 in 244 | $287 | 10.8% | 34 | 32.1 | 1.06× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 135 | $162 | 11.0% | 64 | 57.9 | 1.11× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 132 | $154 | 10.7% | 65 | 59.4 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $86.69 | 10.8% | 115 | 106.4 | 1.08× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $73.13 | 10.8% | 131 | 125.9 | 1.04× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $47.99 | 10.8% | 197 | 192.4 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $42.81 | 10.8% | 193 | 215.8 | 0.89× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 20 | $23.44 | 10.8% | 369 | 393.3 | 0.94× |
| [Charm \| Glitter Bomb charm · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/charm-glitter-bomb) | 1 in 13 | $14.74 | 10.8% | 629 | 625.6 | 1.01× |
| [MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) | 76.8% | $0.06 | 0.4% | 6,022 | 6009.7 | 1.00× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/synergy`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $12.46 $1,205 96.68x 2026-11-09 18:20 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=synergy)

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $12.46 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $12.46 $23.44 1.88x 2026-11-11 13:54 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $12.46 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $12.46 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) [⚓ ADMİRAL ⚓](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9A%93%20ADM%C4%B0RAL%20%E2%9A%93) $12.46 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $12.46 $47.88 3.84x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) Hidden $12.46 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[MAC-10 | Light Box (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-light-box-field-tested) Hidden $12.46 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) Hidden $12.46 $150 12.08x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

[★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-black-laminate-field-tested) Hidden $12.46 $47.88 3.84x 2026-11-11 13:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $12.46 | 87.50% | 11 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $12.46 | 87.06% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $12.46 | 87.08% | 11 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $12.46 | 87.27% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $12.46 | 87.87% | 11 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $12.46 | 87.18% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $12.46 | 87.10% | 11 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $12.46 | 87.75% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $12.46 | 87.05% | 11 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $12.46 | 87.67% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $12.46 | 87.02% | 11 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $12.46 | 87.43% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $12.46 | 87.60% | 11 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $12.46 | 87.14% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $12.46 | 87.37% | 11 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $12.46 | 87.38% | 11 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $12.46 | 87.23% | 11 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 3.1% extraordinary 0.4% red 12.1% gold 2.5% classified 5.0% Rare 76.8% best hit $1,205 (96.68x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

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How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt