--- title: "TARIFA JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "TARIFA JOKER ($2,271.56) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 64.47% over 153 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T03:02Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TARIFA JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TARIFA JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker?window=all) Price · $2,271.56 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 64.47% · 153 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 14 openings · below min 7 days · 98 openings · below min 30 days · 153 openings · below min since tracking started · 153 openings · below min 16.0% 57.3% 98.5% **Small sample.** 153 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker?window=24h) | 14 | 57.13% ±40.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker?window=7d) | 98 | 69.77% ±22.4 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker) | 153 | 64.47% ±16.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3-joker?window=all) | 153 | 64.47% ±16.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $2,290 $10.2K 4.45x 2026-11-08 18:26 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $2,290 $10.2K 4.45x 2026-11-08 18:25 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $2,290 $10.2K 4.45x 2026-11-06 16:50 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $2,264 $10.1K 4.48x 2026-11-08 18:24 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $2,264 $10.1K 4.48x 2026-11-08 18:24 UTC [AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $2,272 $9,825 4.33x 2026-11-03 00:50 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [D. xGuGu](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D.%20xGuGu) $2,290 $7,097 3.10x 2026-11-08 01:44 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $2,290 $7,097 3.10x 2026-11-04 23:35 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $2,290 $7,097 3.10x 2026-11-04 23:35 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [G1G0 onte tap](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/G1G0%20onte%20tap) $2,290 $7,097 3.10x 2026-11-04 23:00 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=tarifa-3-joker) [★ Skeleton Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $548 0.24x 2026-11-11 04:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $1.68 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:38 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $1,595 0.71x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $1,685 0.75x 2026-11-11 04:37 UTC [M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $1,595 0.71x 2026-11-11 04:36 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $633 0.28x 2026-11-11 04:36 UTC [★ Karambit | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $1,314 0.58x 2026-11-11 04:35 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $6,939 3.07x 2026-11-11 04:35 UTC [M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $1.68 0.00x 2026-11-11 04:34 UTC [★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [SharaN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SharaN) $2,257 $101 0.04x 2026-11-11 04:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $10.2K (4.45x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 64.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $64.47 on average: an expected loss of $35.53 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt