---
title: "TARIFA case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TARIFA ($80.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 12 items with odds, observed 91.54% over 1,952 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:11Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TARIFA](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TARIFA

A case on Key-Drop (YOUTUBERS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3?window=all)

Price · $80.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $70.00 from 12 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.54% · 1,952 openings, odds method

Variance · 16.2× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 1 in 30 · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 81.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 104.47% ±42.19 346 openings

7 days · 93.90% ±19.48 1,602 openings

30 days · 91.54% ±17.64 1,952 openings

since tracking started · 91.54% ±17.64 1,952 openings

61.5% 104.5% 147.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3?window=24h) | 346 | 104.47% ±42.2 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3?window=7d) | 1,602 | 93.90% ±19.5 | +0.7σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3) | 1,952 | 91.54% ±17.6 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tarifa-3?window=all) | 1,952 | 91.54% ±17.6 | +0.5σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 12 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,952 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $10.2K | 1.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $6,939 | 9.9% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.02× |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 250 | $1,685 | 9.6% | 5 | 7.8 | 0.64× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) | 1 in 233 | $1,572 | 9.7% | 11 | 8.4 | 1.31× |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 196 | $1,319 | 9.6% | 9 | 10.0 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 116 | $783 | 9.6% | 29 | 16.8 | 1.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 97 | $653 | 9.6% | 18 | 20.1 | 0.90× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 90 | $609 | 9.6% | 20 | 21.7 | 0.92× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 81 | $550 | 9.7% | 27 | 24.0 | 1.12× |
| [Sticker \| Flammable sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable) | 1 in 17 | $113 | 9.6% | 120 | 116.1 | 1.03× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 15 | $101 | 9.6% | 109 | 130.0 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) | 81.7% | $1.65 | 1.9% | 1,602 | 1595.0 | 1.00× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/tarifa-3`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [Sumerlandio](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sumerlandio) $80.00 $6,939 86.74x 2026-11-11 11:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [Sumerlandio](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sumerlandio) $80.00 $6,866 85.82x 2026-11-11 11:26 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $80.00 $1,696 21.20x 2026-11-06 04:11 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $80.00 $1,696 21.20x 2026-11-05 12:54 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [dzs4z0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dzs4z0n) $80.00 $1,693 21.16x 2026-11-06 14:10 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [dzs4z0n](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dzs4z0n) $80.00 $1,693 21.16x 2026-11-06 14:09 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) [tAURU$$$](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/tAURU%24%24%24) $80.00 $1,688 21.10x 2026-11-09 21:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [Hum4](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hum4) $80.00 $1,653 20.66x 2026-11-04 02:18 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [PAU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PAU) $80.00 $1,653 20.66x 2026-11-03 16:55 UTC

[M4A1-S | Hot Rod (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hot-rod-factory-new) [PAU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/PAU) $80.00 $1,653 20.66x 2026-11-03 16:54 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=tarifa-3)

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [albertgilt](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/albertgilt) $80.00 $1.65 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [albertgilt](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/albertgilt) $80.00 $1.65 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) [albertgilt](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/albertgilt) $80.00 $101 1.27x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[Sticker | Flammable sticker · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flammable) Hidden $80.00 $109 1.36x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) Hidden $80.00 $1.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) Hidden $80.00 $1.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) Hidden $80.00 $1.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) Hidden $80.00 $1.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [albertgilt](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/albertgilt) $80.00 $1.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

[M4A1-S | Liquidation (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-liquidation-well-worn) [albertgilt](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/albertgilt) $80.00 $1.66 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:41 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $80.00 | 87.50% | 12 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $80.00 | 87.35% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $80.00 | 86.85% | 12 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $80.00 | 87.73% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $80.00 | 87.79% | 12 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $80.00 | 87.75% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $80.00 | 87.21% | 12 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $80.00 | 87.39% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $80.00 | 87.61% | 12 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $80.00 | 87.83% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $80.00 | 87.90% | 12 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $80.00 | 87.69% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $80.00 | 87.36% | 12 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $80.00 | 87.13% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $80.00 | 87.31% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $80.00 | 86.91% | 12 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $80.00 | 87.35% | 12 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $80.00 | 87.77% | 12 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 9.3% restricted 82.1% classified 1.5% legendary 1.2% pink 5.9% best hit $6,939 (86.74x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt