--- title: "TECH case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "TECH ($0.60) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 69.00% over 27.6K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech rendered: 2026-11-11T13:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TECH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TECH A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech?window=all) Price · $0.60 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $0.52 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 69.00% · 27.6K openings, odds method Variance · 66.9× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 232 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 95.5% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 60.43% ±32.35 2,386 openings 7 days · 69.34% ±11.50 21.5K openings 30 days · 69.00% ±10.15 27.6K openings since tracking started · 69.00% ±10.15 27.6K openings 27.5% 60.5% 93.5% **Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.34% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (58.86% – 79.15%, 27,557 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech?window=24h) | 2,386 | 60.43% ±32.3 | −1.6σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech?window=7d) | 21.5K | 69.34% ±11.5 | −3.1σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech) | 27.6K | 69.00% ±10.1 | −3.5σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tech?window=all) | 27.6K | 69.00% ±10.1 | −3.5σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 27.6K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $101 | 19.3% | 14 | 27.6 | 0.51× | | [AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-queens-gambit-field-tested) | 1 in 694 | $70.76 | 19.4% | 43 | 39.7 | 1.08× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 535 | $54.15 | 19.3% | 54 | 51.6 | 1.05× | | [AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nouveau-rouge-field-tested) | 1 in 107 | $10.77 | 19.2% | 213 | 257.9 | 0.83× | | [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $3.23 | 19.2% | 501 | 861.0 | 0.58× | | [P250 \| Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) | 95.5% | $0.02 | 3.6% | 26,761 | 26348.2 | 1.02× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/tech`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) [DW2k](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DW2k) $0.60 $103 172.4x 2026-11-09 06:06 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) [DW2k](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/DW2k) $0.60 $103 172.4x 2026-11-09 06:05 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) [Freaky Gooner@banditSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Freaky%20Gooner%40banditSKINS) $0.60 $102 169.5x 2026-11-09 18:46 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $102 169.5x 2026-11-09 09:23 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $100 166.9x 2026-11-07 12:10 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) [Freaky Gooner@banditSKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Freaky%20Gooner%40banditSKINS) $0.60 $100 166.9x 2026-11-07 19:45 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $95.29 158.8x 2026-11-05 12:40 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $94.60 157.7x 2026-11-04 00:50 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $94.60 157.7x 2026-11-03 10:01 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-lore-field-tested) Hidden $0.60 $91.88 153.1x 2026-11-07 01:55 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=tech) [P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) [Klemzila23](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Klemzila23) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:12 UTC [P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) [SmellyWarrior69 | Bloodycase.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SmellyWarrior69%20%7C%20Bloodycase.com) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC [P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) [dos](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dos) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) [dos](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dos) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) [Hungng](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Hungng) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 13:05 UTC [P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) [g3g4\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/g3g4_) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) [MILTIX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MILTIX) $0.60 $3.23 5.38x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) [F\_Beninão 00](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/F_Benin%C3%A3o%2000) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:23 UTC [USP-S | Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) [MILTIX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MILTIX) $0.60 $3.10 5.17x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC [P250 | Plum Netting (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-plum-netting-field-tested) [F\_Beninão 00](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/F_Benin%C3%A3o%2000) $0.60 $0.02 0.03x 2026-11-11 12:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0.60 | 87.50% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0.60 | 86.75% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0.60 | 86.92% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0.60 | 87.12% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0.60 | 86.94% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0.60 | 86.97% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0.60 | 90.43% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.70% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0.60 | 87.73% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0.60 | 87.40% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0.60 | 87.64% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0.60 | 87.13% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0.60 | 86.59% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $0.60 | 87.05% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0.60 | 87.37% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0.60 | 87.54% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.3% rare 0.1% pink 0.9% Mythical 3.1% gray 95.5% best hit $103 (172.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt