---
title: "TELEGRAM case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TELEGRAM ($0.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TELEGRAM](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TELEGRAM

A case on Key-Drop (COMMUNITY CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram?window=all)

Price · $0.00

Advertised RTP · —

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · — · needs odds

Tail share · — · needs odds

Below price · — · needs odds

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/telegram?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100,000 | $172 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $58.10 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $42.84 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $21.41 | 1.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-outsiders-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $7.02 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $5.29 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-stratosphere-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $4.08 | 1.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $3.44 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-glitched-paint-field-tested) | 1 in 667 | $1.54 | 3.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Pit Viper (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-pit-viper-field-tested) | 1 in 143 | $1.12 | 11.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested) weapon · 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-apocalypto-field-tested) | 1 in 100 | $0.71 | 10.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-dragon-tech-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.45 | 13.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Nova \| Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.27 | 8.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Zubastick (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-zubastick-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.08 | 4.8% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-well-worn) | 1 in 13 | $0.05 | 6.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP5-SD \| Lime Hex (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-lime-hex-field-tested) | 33.5% | $0.02 | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Blue Tac (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-blue-tac-field-tested) | 33.5% | $0.02 | 10.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-naval-shred-camo-battle-scarred) | 15.0% | $0.02 | 4.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/telegram`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=telegram)

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 3 1.0% red 0.0% Ancient 0.0% covert 0.0% classified 0.0% rare 0.0% Legendary 0.1% Classified 0.0% pink 0.1% violet 2.2% restricted 0.7% blue 6.0% Mil Spec Grade 8.0% gray 33.5% #b0c3d9 33.5% light blue 15.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt