--- title: "TERRORIST JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "TERRORIST JOKER ($38.80) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 69.43% over 509 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T19:53Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TERRORIST JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TERRORIST JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker?window=all) Price · $38.80 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 69.43% · 509 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 102 openings · below min 7 days · 370 openings · below min 30 days · 509 openings · below min since tracking started · 509 openings · below min 41.5% 65.8% 90.0% **Small sample.** 509 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker?window=24h) | 102 | 65.84% ±23.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker?window=7d) | 370 | 60.24% ±11.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker) | 509 | 69.43% ±10.9 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist-joker?window=all) | 509 | 69.43% ±10.9 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=terrorist-joker) [Tec-9 | Fuel Injector weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector) [Amo7195](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Amo7195) $37.98 $14.13 0.37x 2026-11-11 19:12 UTC [MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) [Amo7195](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Amo7195) $37.98 $1.58 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [G3SG1 | Scavenger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) Hidden $37.62 $0.57 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) Hidden $37.62 $4.36 0.12x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) Hidden $37.62 $13.77 0.37x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [Glock-18 | Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) Hidden $37.62 $132 3.51x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [Tec-9 | Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) Hidden $37.62 $0.45 0.01x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) [Amo7195](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Amo7195) $37.62 $13.77 0.37x 2026-11-11 19:11 UTC [AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) Hidden $37.62 $14.66 0.39x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) Hidden $37.62 $0.82 0.02x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 69.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $69.43 on average: an expected loss of $30.57 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt