---
title: "TERRORIST case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TERRORIST ($2.21) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 36 items with odds, observed 81.49% over 8,981 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TERRORIST](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TERRORIST

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist?window=all)

Price · $2.21

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.93 from 36 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 81.49% · 8,981 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.1× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 22.2% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 93.88% ±11.25 648 openings

7 days · 82.31% ±3.49 7,686 openings

30 days · 81.49% ±3.21 8,981 openings

since tracking started · 81.49% ±3.21 8,981 openings

77.5% 91.8% 106.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.47% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (78.27% – 84.70%, 8,981 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist?window=24h) | 648 | 93.88% ±11.2 | +1.1σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist?window=7d) | 7,686 | 82.31% ±3.49 | −2.9σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist) | 8,981 | 81.49% ±3.21 | −3.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/terrorist?window=all) | 8,981 | 81.49% ±3.21 | −3.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 36 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 9,003 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 25,000 | $237 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $164 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-wasteland-rebel-field-tested) | 1 in 14,286 | $128 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20,000 | $82.85 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-ocean-drive-field-tested) | 1 in 9,091 | $82.41 | 0.5% | 2 | 1.0 | — |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $57.61 | 0.4% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $54.15 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $42.85 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.8 | 0.56× |
| [Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-water-elemental-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,941 | $23.92 | 0.4% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.33× |
| [Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-decimator-field-tested) | 1 in 2,381 | $19.39 | 0.4% | 4 | 3.8 | 1.06× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $15.48 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [Galil AR \| Eco (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-eco-field-tested) | 1 in 1,852 | $14.90 | 0.4% | 2 | 4.9 | 0.41× |
| [AWP \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fever-dream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,786 | $14.53 | 0.4% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.60× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 3,125 | $13.48 | 0.2% | 0 | 2.9 | 0.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-minimal-wear) | 1 in 3,846 | $13.44 | 0.2% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.28× |
| [XM1014 \| Tranquility (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-tranquility-field-tested) | 1 in 2,174 | $10.04 | 0.2% | 4 | 4.1 | 0.97× |
| [SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-colony-iv-field-tested) | 1 in 1,205 | $9.74 | 0.4% | 7 | 7.5 | 0.94× |
| [XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-incinegator-field-tested) | 1 in 23 | $6.78 | 15.5% | 350 | 398.5 | 0.88× |
| [AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-slate-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $5.44 | 7.2% | 226 | 229.2 | 0.99× |
| [AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-rat-rod-field-tested) | 1 in 34 | $4.67 | 7.2% | 242 | 267.0 | 0.91× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $3.87 | 3.5% | 79 | 155.5 | 0.51× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $3.61 | 3.7% | 90 | 178.7 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-minimal-wear) | 1 in 152 | $3.54 | 1.2% | 40 | 59.1 | 0.68× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $3.25 | 12.5% | 497 | 671.5 | 0.74× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 22 | $2.39 | 5.6% | 264 | 404.5 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-battle-scarred) | 1 in 34 | $2.22 | 3.3% | 163 | 262.6 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-well-worn) | 1 in 62 | $2.17 | 1.8% | 181 | 144.9 | 1.25× |
| [AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta-field-tested) | 1 in 56 | $2.03 | 1.9% | 80 | 161.1 | 0.50× |
| [AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 29 | $1.90 | 3.4% | 197 | 315.3 | 0.62× |
| [MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $1.62 | 5.6% | 574 | 603.0 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-exposure-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $1.27 | 4.8% | 667 | 664.7 | 1.00× |
| [XM1014 \| Zombie Offensive (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-zombie-offensive-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $1.22 | 4.7% | 674 | 675.5 | 1.00× |
| [MAC-10 \| Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $0.82 | 3.7% | 815 | 791.7 | 1.03× |
| [G3SG1 \| Scavenger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) | 10.0% | $0.59 | 3.1% | 881 | 903.2 | 0.98× |
| [Tec-9 \| Brother (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-brother-field-tested) | 11.2% | $0.45 | 2.6% | 1,104 | 1006.5 | 1.10× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) | 11.9% | $0.39 | 2.4% | 1,091 | 1067.7 | 1.02× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/terrorist`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=terrorist)

[AK-47 | Steel Delta weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-steel-delta) [KeBartek](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KeBartek) $2.21 $2.28 1.03x 2026-11-11 13:11 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $2.21 $0.82 0.37x 2026-11-11 13:09 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [☣Zypki☣](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%98%A3Zypki%E2%98%A3) $2.21 $0.79 0.36x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-cat-fight-minimal-wear) Hidden $2.21 $1.59 0.72x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-elite-build-well-worn) Hidden $2.21 $1.87 0.85x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) Hidden $2.21 $0.44 0.20x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[R8 Revolver | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-blaze-factory-new) [KeBartek](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/KeBartek) $2.21 $3.25 1.47x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Hybrid (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-hybrid-field-tested) [krmkuru](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/krmkuru) $2.21 $0.39 0.18x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[MAC-10 | Sakkaku (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/mac-10-sakkaku-field-tested) [Lush](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lush) $2.21 $0.82 0.37x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

[G3SG1 | Scavenger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-scavenger-field-tested) [Lush](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lush) $2.21 $0.59 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:56 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.21 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.21 | 88.28% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.21 | 87.36% | 36 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.21 | 86.83% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.21 | 87.27% | 36 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.21 | 87.58% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.21 | 87.59% | 36 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.21 | 87.72% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.21 | 87.08% | 36 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.21 | 87.71% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.21 | 87.47% | 36 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.21 | 87.83% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.21 | 87.87% | 36 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.21 | 87.50% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.21 | 87.53% | 36 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.21 | 87.46% | 36 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.21 | 87.49% | 36 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% covert 0.0% red 0.0% classified 4.8% Ancient 0.0% Legendary 0.0% Mythical 2.5% violet 66.4% pink 3.7% Rare 6.9% blue 15.5% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt