---
title: "THUNDER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "THUNDER ($15.79) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 64 items with odds, observed 87.88% over 1,980 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:17Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [THUNDER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · THUNDER

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder?window=all)

Price · $15.79

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $13.82 from 64 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.88% · 1,980 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 21.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 61.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 80.49% ±20.75 184 openings

7 days · 87.92% ±6.95 1,763 openings

30 days · 87.88% ±6.55 1,980 openings

since tracking started · 87.88% ±6.55 1,980 openings

59.0% 80.5% 102.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder?window=24h) | 184 | 80.49% ±20.7 | −0.7σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder?window=7d) | 1,763 | 87.92% ±6.95 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder) | 1,980 | 87.88% ±6.55 | +0.1σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/thunder?window=all) | 1,980 | 87.88% ±6.55 | +0.1σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 64 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,980 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,319 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · gold · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 10,000 | $626 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $609 | 0.9% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 1,111 | $147 | 1.0% | 4 | 1.8 | 2.24× |
| [AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-bloodsport-field-tested) | 1 in 1,000 | $145 | 1.0% | 6 | 2.0 | 3.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,500 | $75.12 | 0.2% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,111 | $72.60 | 0.5% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $71.39 | 0.5% | 2 | 2.0 | 1.01× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 2,000 | $70.80 | 0.3% | 3 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-well-worn) | 1 in 2,000 | $70.60 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,667 | $64.85 | 0.3% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.84× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $64.31 | 0.3% | 0 | 1.2 | 0.00× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 90 | $54.81 | 4.4% | 28 | 22.0 | 1.27× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 250 | $54.24 | 1.6% | 11 | 7.9 | 1.39× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 238 | $53.21 | 1.6% | 8 | 8.3 | 0.96× |
| [AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-asiimov-field-tested) | 1 in 83 | $50.22 | 4.4% | 21 | 24.0 | 0.88× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-well-worn) | 1 in 208 | $42.18 | 1.5% | 10 | 9.5 | 1.05× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-battle-scarred) | 1 in 204 | $41.68 | 1.5% | 13 | 9.7 | 1.34× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 156 | $41.56 | 1.9% | 14 | 12.7 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 200 | $41.37 | 1.5% | 7 | 9.9 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $35.74 | 7.1% | 24 | 54.3 | 0.44× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $32.89 | 3.2% | 19 | 26.7 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 23 | $31.79 | 10.1% | 51 | 87.3 | 0.58× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-well-worn) | 1 in 39 | $23.96 | 4.4% | 25 | 50.3 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $23.44 | 6.8% | 55 | 79.2 | 0.69× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-minimal-wear) | 1 in 85 | $23.31 | 2.0% | 19 | 23.4 | 0.81× |
| [Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) | 1 in 14 | $21.41 | 11.2% | 126 | 143.4 | 0.88× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $20.75 | 3.2% | 34 | 42.0 | 0.81× |
| [Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-kumicho-dragon-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $20.24 | 3.3% | 34 | 44.2 | 0.77× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-minimal-wear) | 1 in 34 | $18.32 | 3.9% | 30 | 57.8 | 0.52× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-minimal-wear) | 1 in 59 | $16.85 | 2.1% | 21 | 33.5 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-minimal-wear) | 1 in 196 | $15.57 | 0.6% | 14 | 10.1 | 1.39× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-field-tested) | 1 in 156 | $15.31 | 0.7% | 24 | 12.7 | 1.89× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-well-worn) | 1 in 154 | $15.28 | 0.7% | 15 | 12.9 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-desolate-space-battle-scarred) | 1 in 147 | $14.83 | 0.7% | 6 | 13.5 | 0.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Minimal Wear) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 233 | $14.65 | 0.5% | 6 | 8.5 | 0.70× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-minimal-wear) | 1 in 345 | $14.59 | 0.3% | 4 | 5.7 | 0.70× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-field-tested) | 1 in 154 | $11.30 | 0.5% | 8 | 12.9 | 0.62× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Well-Worn) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-well-worn) | 1 in 127 | $9.94 | 0.6% | 9 | 15.6 | 0.58× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-field-tested) | 1 in 141 | $9.69 | 0.5% | 8 | 14.1 | 0.57× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 49 | $9.64 | 1.4% | 30 | 40.8 | 0.74× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 85 | $8.79 | 0.7% | 12 | 23.2 | 0.52× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-field-tested) | 1 in 130 | $7.89 | 0.4% | 15 | 15.2 | 0.98× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 161 | $7.85 | 0.4% | 7 | 12.3 | 0.57× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-well-worn) | 1 in 97 | $7.69 | 0.6% | 19 | 20.4 | 0.93× |
| [M4A4 \| Polysoup (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-polysoup-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $7.48 | 0.7% | 18 | 24.8 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $6.65 | 0.9% | 23 | 36.0 | 0.64× |
| [M4A4 \| Spider Lily (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-spider-lily-battle-scarred) | 1 in 73 | $6.43 | 0.6% | 17 | 27.1 | 0.63× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-well-worn) | 1 in 78 | $5.71 | 0.5% | 13 | 25.5 | 0.51× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 85 | $5.27 | 0.4% | 17 | 23.2 | 0.73× |
| [UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $5.25 | 1.7% | 86 | 89.5 | 0.96× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 79 | $5.04 | 0.5% | 19 | 24.9 | 0.76× |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 57 | $4.70 | 0.6% | 26 | 34.8 | 0.75× |
| [M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $4.68 | 0.5% | 22 | 28.1 | 0.78× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-factory-new) | 1 in 185 | $3.13 | 0.1% | 19 | 10.7 | 1.78× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 156 | $2.88 | 0.1% | 5 | 12.7 | 0.39× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-minimal-wear) | 1 in 69 | $1.68 | 0.2% | 18 | 28.7 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 39 | $1.21 | 0.2% | 43 | 51.1 | 0.84× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-well-worn) | 1 in 38 | $1.15 | 0.2% | 33 | 52.5 | 0.63× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $1.06 | 0.2% | 44 | 59.8 | 0.74× |
| [Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $1.05 | 0.2% | 38 | 60.8 | 0.63× |
| [M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) | 12.1% | $1.01 | 0.9% | 242 | 240.4 | 1.01× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $0.91 | 0.3% | 50 | 80.6 | 0.62× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 22 | $0.82 | 0.3% | 77 | 91.7 | 0.84× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/thunder`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=thunder)

[USP-S | Black Lotus weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus) [rezende2.0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rezende2.0) $15.79 $1.05 0.07x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) [rezende2.0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rezende2.0) $15.79 $21.41 1.36x 2026-11-11 12:55 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.79 $1.00 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) Hidden $15.79 $22.18 1.40x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.79 $1.00 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.79 $1.00 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[UMP-45 | K.O. Factory (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-k-o-factory-well-worn) Hidden $15.79 $5.32 0.34x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[USP-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) [rezende2.0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rezende2.0) $15.79 $1.23 0.08x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[Glock-18 | Snack Attack (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-snack-attack-field-tested) [rezende2.0](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/rezende2.0) $15.79 $20.45 1.30x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

[M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-etch-lord-minimal-wear) Hidden $15.79 $1.00 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:53 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $15.79 | 87.50% | 64 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $15.79 | 87.41% | 64 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $15.79 | 87.46% | 64 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $15.79 | 87.44% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $15.79 | 87.81% | 64 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $15.79 | 87.69% | 64 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $15.79 | 87.40% | 64 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $15.79 | 87.46% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $15.79 | 87.17% | 64 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $15.79 | 87.65% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $15.79 | 87.64% | 64 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $15.79 | 87.16% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $15.79 | 87.86% | 64 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $15.79 | 87.45% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $15.79 | 87.46% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $15.79 | 87.12% | 64 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $15.79 | 87.58% | 64 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $15.79 | 87.63% | 64 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 4.7% gold 0.0% classified 27.0% red 1.1% Classified 3.2% rare 4.4% uncommon 7.8% Mythical 2.6% Legendary 1.7% violet 14.9% #d32ee6 2.1% pink 6.9% restricted 2.9% blue 9.3% mil spec 2.6% #8847ff 5.7% Restricted 3.0% best hit —

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt