--- title: "TIGER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "TIGER ($1.20) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 82.06% over 39.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger rendered: 2026-11-11T13:26Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TIGER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TIGER A case on Key-Drop (RISK ZONE), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger?window=all) Price · $1.20 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.05 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 82.06% · 39.7K openings, odds method Variance · 39.0× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 130 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 69.4% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 91.81% ±17.67 4,817 openings 7 days · 81.74% ±6.82 32.8K openings 30 days · 82.06% ±6.18 39.7K openings since tracking started · 82.06% ±6.18 39.7K openings 73.5% 91.8% 110.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger?window=24h) | 4,817 | 91.81% ±17.7 | +0.4σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger?window=7d) | 32.8K | 81.74% ±6.82 | −1.7σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger) | 39.7K | 82.06% ±6.18 | −1.8σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiger?window=all) | 39.7K | 82.06% ±6.18 | −1.8σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39.8K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Gut Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 588 | $123 | 20.0% | 64 | 67.7 | 0.95× | | [AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-asiimov-battle-scarred) | 1 in 455 | $94.65 | 19.8% | 84 | 87.6 | 0.96× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-field-tested) | 1 in 263 | $54.15 | 19.6% | 122 | 151.2 | 0.81× | | [Glock-18 \| Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) | 13.2% | $1.56 | 19.6% | 5,421 | 5253.9 | 1.03× | | [MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-goo-field-tested) | 16.7% | $1.24 | 19.7% | 6,391 | 6631.0 | 0.96× | | [SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) | 69.4% | $0.02 | 1.3% | 27,720 | 27610.6 | 1.00× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/tiger`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $124 103.4x 2026-11-05 02:19 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $124 103.4x 2026-11-05 00:02 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $124 103.4x 2026-11-04 23:38 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $124 103.4x 2026-11-04 22:21 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $124 103.4x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $124 103.4x 2026-11-04 17:13 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $124 103.0x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $123 102.8x 2026-11-11 06:53 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $123 102.8x 2026-11-10 20:48 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $1.20 $123 102.8x 2026-11-10 16:57 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=tiger) [SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $1.20 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:24 UTC [SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) [mini\_pablo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/mini_pablo) $1.20 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) [baran - TimingisALL skins.army](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/baran%20-%20TimingisALL%20skins.army) $1.20 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $1.51 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) Hidden $1.20 $1.51 1.26x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-weasel-field-tested) [É O GOZAS?](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C3%89%20O%20GOZAS%3F) $1.20 $1.56 1.30x 2026-11-11 13:16 UTC [SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) [\_Ruizago\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/_Ruizago_) $1.20 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:15 UTC [SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) [É O GOZAS?](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C3%89%20O%20GOZAS%3F) $1.20 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC [SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) [dos](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dos) $1.20 $0.02 0.02x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.20 | 87.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.20 | 88.11% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.20 | 88.22% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.20 | 88.45% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.20 | 87.15% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.20 | 87.52% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.20 | 87.28% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.20 | 87.29% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.20 | 87.75% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.20 | 87.82% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.20 | 86.87% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.20 | 88.15% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.20 | 87.87% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.20 | 87.85% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.20 | 88.13% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.20 | 87.33% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.20 | 87.49% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 0.8% Mythical 29.9% gray 69.4% best hit $124 (103.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt