--- title: "TIRO CERTO case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "TIRO CERTO ($0.80) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 76.23% over 6,764 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo rendered: 2026-11-12T09:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TIRO CERTO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TIRO CERTO A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo?window=all) Price · $0.80 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 76.23% · 6,764 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 83.76% ±17.03 1,080 openings 7 days · 76.85% ±4.05 5,302 openings 30 days · 76.23% ±3.29 6,764 openings since tracking started · 76.23% ±3.29 6,764 openings 66.0% 83.7% 101.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo?window=24h) | 1,080 | 83.76% ±17.0 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo?window=7d) | 5,302 | 76.85% ±4.05 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo) | 6,764 | 76.23% ±3.29 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tiro-certo?window=all) | 6,764 | 76.23% ±3.29 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [Gando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gando) $0.80 $53.51 66.89x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [Gando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Gando) $0.80 $52.28 65.35x 2026-11-11 19:10 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=tiro-certo) [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [SnowDevill\_8](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SnowDevill_8) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 08:51 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [SUB](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SUB) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 07:12 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [SUB](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SUB) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-12 07:12 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Z I G Λ Я Я O](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Z%20I%20G%20%CE%9B%20%D0%AF%20%D0%AF%20O) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 05:12 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Z I G Λ Я Я O](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Z%20I%20G%20%CE%9B%20%D0%AF%20%D0%AF%20O) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-12 05:12 UTC [SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) [Z I G Λ Я Я O](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Z%20I%20G%20%CE%9B%20%D0%AF%20%D0%AF%20O) $0.80 $0.63 0.79x 2026-11-12 05:12 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Z I G Λ Я Я O](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Z%20I%20G%20%CE%9B%20%D0%AF%20%D0%AF%20O) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 05:12 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Z I G Λ Я Я O](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Z%20I%20G%20%CE%9B%20%D0%AF%20%D0%AF%20O) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-12 05:11 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [tfZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/tfZ) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-12 05:03 UTC [SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) [tfZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/tfZ) $0.80 $0.63 0.79x 2026-11-12 05:03 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $53.51 (66.89x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 76.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $76.23 on average: an expected loss of $23.77 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt