--- title: "TOKEN case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "TOKEN ($2.75) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 6 items with odds, observed 74.27% over 29.7K openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token rendered: 2026-11-11T12:46Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TOKEN](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TOKEN A case on Key-Drop (KINGS CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token?window=all) Price · $2.75 Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $2.41 from 6 items Observed RTP, 30d · 74.27% · 29.7K openings, odds method Variance · 157.6× · of price², per opening Tail share · 1 in 120 · of openings carry half the EV Below price · 96.8% · of openings return less than the price ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample 24 hours · 61.81% ±38.00 4,552 openings 7 days · 74.22% ±17.53 22.7K openings 30 days · 74.27% ±15.31 29.7K openings since tracking started · 74.27% ±15.31 29.7K openings 23.0% 61.7% 100.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token?window=24h) | 4,552 | 61.81% ±38.0 | −1.3σ | odds | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token?window=7d) | 22.7K | 74.22% ±17.5 | −1.4σ | odds | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token) | 29.7K | 74.27% ±15.3 | −1.6σ | odds | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/token?window=all) | 29.7K | 74.27% ±15.3 | −1.6σ | odds | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · 6 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 29.7K openings, 30 days Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity. | Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [★ Butterfly Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 4,348 | $2,118 | 20.2% | 3 | 6.8 | 0.44× | | [★ Shadow Daggers \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 412 | $193 | 19.5% | 65 | 72.2 | 0.90× | | [AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-neon-rider-minimal-wear) | 1 in 177 | $82.85 | 19.4% | 180 | 167.5 | 1.07× | | [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 94 | $43.82 | 19.4% | 282 | 316.6 | 0.89× | | [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-minimal-wear) | 1 in 74 | $34.71 | 19.4% | 356 | 400.0 | 0.89× | | [SCAR-20 \| Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) | 96.8% | $0.05 | 2.0% | 28,812 | 28734.9 | 1.00× | Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/token`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $2.75 $2,288 831.9x 2026-11-05 16:48 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $2.75 $2,288 831.9x 2026-11-05 16:26 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $2.75 $2,255 820.1x 2026-11-06 21:24 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2.75 $202 73.62x 2026-11-08 13:00 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2.75 $202 73.62x 2026-11-08 13:00 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2.75 $202 73.62x 2026-11-08 09:50 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2.75 $201 73.27x 2026-11-05 21:06 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [FRIJO22](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FRIJO22) $2.75 $201 73.27x 2026-11-05 16:28 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [FRIJO22](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/FRIJO22) $2.75 $201 73.27x 2026-11-05 16:27 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $2.75 $201 73.27x 2026-11-05 11:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=token) [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) [miguells2890](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/miguells2890) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) Hidden $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) [miguells2890](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/miguells2890) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 12:09 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) [acelan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/acelan) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) [acelan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/acelan) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:56 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) [acelan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/acelan) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) [acelan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/acelan) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) [acelan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/acelan) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) [acelan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/acelan) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC [SCAR-20 | Fragments (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-fragments-field-tested) [acelan](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/acelan) $2.75 $0.05 0.02x 2026-11-11 11:55 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $2.75 | 87.50% | 6 | | 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $2.75 | 86.81% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $2.75 | 86.93% | 6 | | 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $2.75 | 87.12% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $2.75 | 88.35% | 6 | | 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $2.75 | 84.72% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $2.75 | 84.15% | 6 | | 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $2.75 | 84.74% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $2.75 | 86.80% | 6 | | 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $2.75 | 87.42% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $2.75 | 87.04% | 6 | | 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $2.75 | 87.82% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $2.75 | 88.34% | 6 | | 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $2.75 | 88.42% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $2.75 | 87.64% | 6 | | 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $2.75 | 87.48% | 6 | | 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $2.75 | 88.90% | 6 | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed covert 1.9% classified 1.3% blue 96.8% best hit $2,288 (831.9x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt