--- title: "TOOTH JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "TOOTH JOKER ($122.40) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.36% over 198 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T17:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TOOTH JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TOOTH JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker?window=all) Price · $122.40 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.36% · 198 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 97 openings · below min 7 days · 126 openings · below min 30 days · 198 openings · below min since tracking started · 198 openings · below min 46.0% 77.8% 109.5% **Small sample.** 198 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker?window=24h) | 97 | 68.85% ±21.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker?window=7d) | 126 | 63.97% ±17.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker) | 198 | 85.36% ±23.3 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth-joker?window=all) | 198 | 85.36% ±23.3 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $122 $1,109 9.07x 2026-11-11 03:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $123 $1,099 8.95x 2026-11-04 03:17 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $123 $1,099 8.95x 2026-11-04 03:16 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $123 $1,099 8.95x 2026-11-04 03:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Train9](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Train9) $123 $1,099 8.95x 2026-11-04 03:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $123 $1,099 8.95x 2026-11-04 03:15 UTC [★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $123 $1,099 8.95x 2026-11-04 03:15 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=tooth-joker) [Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $125 $2.40 0.02x 2026-11-11 16:04 UTC [M4A1-S | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $125 $151 1.21x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) Hidden $121 $65.38 0.54x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $121 $2.39 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $125 $225 1.81x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $125 $7.43 0.06x 2026-11-11 15:10 UTC [M4A1-S | Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $122 $225 1.84x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $122 $166 1.36x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [SSG 08 | Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) Hidden $122 $11.27 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Sticker | Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) Hidden $122 $1.62 0.01x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,109 (9.07x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.36 on average: an expected loss of $14.64 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt