---
title: "TOOTH case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TOOTH ($8.18) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 35 items with odds, observed 94.39% over 2,777 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:04Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TOOTH](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TOOTH

A case on Key-Drop (OUR SPECIALS), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth?window=all)

Price · $8.18

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $7.16 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 94.39% · 2,777 openings, odds method

Variance · 3.6× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 25.7% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.7% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 96.76% ±24.01 239 openings

7 days · 95.99% ±7.72 2,430 openings

30 days · 94.39% ±7.21 2,777 openings

since tracking started · 94.39% ±7.21 2,777 openings

72.0% 96.8% 121.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth?window=24h) | 239 | 96.76% ±24.0 | +0.8σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth?window=7d) | 2,430 | 95.99% ±7.72 | +2.1σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth) | 2,777 | 94.39% ±7.21 | +1.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/tooth?window=all) | 2,777 | 94.39% ±7.21 | +1.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,782 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,109 | 1.5% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 2,000 | $219 | 1.5% | 0 | 1.4 | 0.00× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $170 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 1,667 | $170 | 1.4% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.60× |
| [M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 1,429 | $144 | 1.4% | 2 | 1.9 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-fuel-injector-well-worn) | 1 in 1,111 | $122 | 1.5% | 3 | 2.5 | 1.20× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 769 | $80.48 | 1.5% | 0 | 3.6 | 0.00× |
| [M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-player-two-field-tested) | 1 in 625 | $64.31 | 1.4% | 5 | 4.5 | 1.12× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-factory-new) | 1 in 1,429 | $60.91 | 0.6% | 4 | 1.9 | 2.05× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 417 | $43.82 | 1.5% | 12 | 6.7 | 1.80× |
| [FAMAS \| Commemoration (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-commemoration-minimal-wear) | 1 in 667 | $41.10 | 0.9% | 5 | 4.2 | 1.20× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-minimal-wear) | 1 in 37 | $15.48 | 5.8% | 43 | 74.3 | 0.58× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $14.28 | 6.2% | 50 | 86.2 | 0.58× |
| [P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-imperial-dragon-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $14.20 | 6.2% | 65 | 87.4 | 0.74× |
| [Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-fuel-injector-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $13.48 | 6.6% | 67 | 97.9 | 0.68× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-well-worn) | 1 in 25 | $11.25 | 6.2% | 62 | 109.9 | 0.56× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 36 | $9.66 | 3.8% | 60 | 78.2 | 0.77× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $9.64 | 7.2% | 118 | 149.7 | 0.79× |
| [SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $9.44 | 7.4% | 138 | 156.1 | 0.88× |
| [R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-skull-crusher-field-tested) | 1 in 15 | $7.76 | 7.2% | 201 | 184.4 | 1.09× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-minimal-wear) | 1 in 81 | $6.69 | 1.1% | 21 | 34.2 | 0.61× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-well-worn) | 1 in 55 | $6.59 | 1.7% | 36 | 50.4 | 0.71× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-field-tested) | 1 in 55 | $6.54 | 1.7% | 44 | 50.9 | 0.86× |
| [AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $6.22 | 1.7% | 34 | 54.5 | 0.62× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-well-worn) | 1 in 47 | $4.55 | 1.3% | 38 | 58.7 | 0.65× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-battle-scarred) | 1 in 47 | $4.51 | 1.3% | 47 | 59.5 | 0.79× |
| [M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $4.44 | 1.4% | 46 | 60.9 | 0.76× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $4.18 | 1.6% | 63 | 74.6 | 0.84× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-field-tested) | 1 in 27 | $4.15 | 2.1% | 90 | 102.7 | 0.88× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 37 | $4.14 | 1.6% | 49 | 75.4 | 0.65× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 36 | $4.08 | 1.6% | 50 | 77.1 | 0.65× |
| [P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $3.44 | 2.3% | 101 | 133.5 | 0.76× |
| [Souvenir M249 \| Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) | 10.1% | $2.39 | 3.4% | 299 | 282.1 | 1.06× |
| [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) | 10.3% | $2.30 | 3.3% | 274 | 286.5 | 0.96× |
| [Sticker \| Cedar Creek sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-cedar-creek) | 11.7% | $1.56 | 2.6% | 323 | 326.6 | 0.99× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/tooth`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [SmoKey](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SmoKey) $8.18 $1,123 137.3x 2026-11-08 11:02 UTC

[★ Karambit | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [SmoKey](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SmoKey) $8.18 $1,116 136.4x 2026-11-08 11:03 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=tooth)

[SSG 08 | Big Iron weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron) [denis](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/denis) $8.18 $9.99 1.22x 2026-11-11 12:52 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy) [SÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/S%C3%9CLEYMAN%20%C3%87AKIR) $8.18 $4.85 0.59x 2026-11-11 10:59 UTC

[Souvenir M249 | Humidor (Field-Tested) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-m249-humidor-field-tested) Hidden $8.18 $2.39 0.29x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy-field-tested) [SÜLEYMAN ÇAKIR](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/S%C3%9CLEYMAN%20%C3%87AKIR) $8.18 $4.38 0.54x 2026-11-11 10:58 UTC

[M4A4 | Tooth Fairy weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-tooth-fairy) [patrick jane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/patrick%20jane) $8.18 $4.85 0.59x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor) [patrick jane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/patrick%20jane) $8.18 $7.52 0.92x 2026-11-11 10:40 UTC

[AK-47 | Phantom Disruptor weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-phantom-disruptor) [patrick jane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/patrick%20jane) $8.18 $7.52 0.92x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC

[SSG 08 | Big Iron weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-big-iron) [patrick jane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/patrick%20jane) $8.18 $9.99 1.22x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC

[P2000 | Wicked Sick weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-wicked-sick) [patrick jane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/patrick%20jane) $8.18 $3.75 0.46x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC

[StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Fubar (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-fubar-well-worn) [patrick jane](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/patrick%20jane) $8.18 $2.30 0.28x 2026-11-11 10:39 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $8.18 | 87.50% | 35 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $8.18 | 87.63% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $8.18 | 87.51% | 35 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $8.18 | 87.95% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $8.18 | 87.55% | 35 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $8.18 | 87.42% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $8.18 | 87.67% | 35 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $8.18 | 87.13% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $8.18 | 87.84% | 35 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $8.18 | 87.14% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $8.18 | 87.86% | 35 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $8.18 | 87.49% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $8.18 | 87.55% | 35 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $8.18 | 87.32% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $8.18 | 87.29% | 35 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $8.18 | 87.74% | 35 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $8.18 | 87.40% | 35 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 1.1% classified 26.4% pink 24.1% Legendary 5.0% #d32ee6 8.4% Classified 2.8% blue 20.4% violet 11.7% best hit $1,123 (137.3x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt