--- title: "TORO BRAVO case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "TORO BRAVO ($0.80) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.82% over 14K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo rendered: 2026-11-11T17:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TORO BRAVO](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TORO BRAVO A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo?window=all) Price · $0.80 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.82% · 14K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 126.89% ±47.71 1,254 openings 7 days · 86.03% ±6.59 11.4K openings 30 days · 84.82% ±5.42 14K openings since tracking started · 84.82% ±5.42 14K openings 78.5% 126.8% 175.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo?window=24h) | 1,254 | 126.89% ±47.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo?window=7d) | 11.4K | 86.03% ±6.59 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo) | 14K | 84.82% ±5.42 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/toro-bravo?window=all) | 14K | 84.82% ±5.42 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.80 $161 201.0x 2026-11-11 13:32 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [\_PADRE\_](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/_PADRE_) $0.80 $160 200.5x 2026-11-05 08:04 UTC [★ Gut Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) [m0renaje4KT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/m0renaje4KT) $0.80 $158 197.0x 2026-11-11 13:33 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [Amazing Guy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Amazing%20Guy) $0.80 $54.24 67.80x 2026-11-10 18:44 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [D4rKRepulser](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/D4rKRepulser) $0.80 $52.28 65.35x 2026-11-11 01:21 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) [Amazing Guy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Amazing%20Guy) $0.80 $52.28 65.35x 2026-11-10 18:44 UTC [AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $0.80 $51.99 64.99x 2026-11-06 09:41 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=toro-bravo) [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Estacagando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Estacagando) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Estacagando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Estacagando) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Estacagando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Estacagando) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) [Estacagando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Estacagando) $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:57 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Estacagando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Estacagando) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Estacagando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Estacagando) $0.80 $0.85 1.06x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [SSG 08 | Jungle Dashed (Minimal Wear) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-jungle-dashed-minimal-wear) Hidden $0.80 $0.63 0.79x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Estacagando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Estacagando) $0.80 $0.86 1.08x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [MAG-7 | Metallic DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-metallic-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $0.80 $0.08 0.10x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC [StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Analog Input (Field-Tested) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-sawed-off-analog-input-field-tested) [Estacagando](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Estacagando) $0.80 $0.86 1.08x 2026-11-11 16:56 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $161 (201.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.82 on average: an expected loss of $15.18 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt