---
title: "TRICKSTER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "TRICKSTER ($7.50) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.77% from 33 items with odds, observed 87.07% over 49.5K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:51Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [TRICKSTER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · TRICKSTER

A case on Key-Drop (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2?window=all)

Price · $7.50

Advertised RTP · 87.77% · EV $6.58 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 87.07% · 49.5K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.9% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 68.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 86.05% ±1.99 35.4K openings

30 days · 87.07% ±1.69 49.5K openings

since tracking started · 87.07% ±1.69 49.5K openings

83.5% 86.5% 89.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2?window=7d) | 35.4K | 86.05% ±1.99 | −1.8σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2) | 49.5K | 87.07% ±1.69 | −0.9σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/trickster-2?window=all) | 49.5K | 87.07% ±1.69 | −0.9σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 49.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $1,680 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.34× |
| [★ Huntsman Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $1,100 | 1.2% | 6 | 3.5 | 1.73× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $251 | 0.4% | 1 | 5.0 | 0.20× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 10,000 | $247 | 0.4% | 3 | 5.0 | 0.61× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $136 | 0.4% | 12 | 9.9 | 1.21× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Minimal Wear) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $87.70 | 0.1% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $78.89 | 0.1% | 4 | 5.0 | 0.81× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 1,667 | $57.98 | 0.5% | 16 | 29.7 | 0.54× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-well-worn) | 1 in 1,000 | $56.20 | 0.9% | 30 | 49.6 | 0.61× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 1,429 | $53.70 | 0.6% | 20 | 34.7 | 0.58× |
| [M4A1-S \| Vaporwave (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-vaporwave-field-tested) | 1 in 909 | $53.59 | 0.9% | 21 | 54.5 | 0.39× |
| [AWP \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $52.56 | 0.6% | 26 | 34.7 | 0.75× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-minimal-wear) | 1 in 1,111 | $33.71 | 0.5% | 18 | 44.6 | 0.40× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $25.97 | 3.0% | 218 | 381.7 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 137 | $23.28 | 2.6% | 221 | 361.8 | 0.61× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-well-worn) | 1 in 130 | $22.80 | 2.7% | 213 | 381.7 | 0.56× |
| [P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-woodsman-field-tested) | 1 in 75 | $19.80 | 4.0% | 397 | 659.3 | 0.60× |
| [Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $12.10 | 9.8% | 2,711 | 2632.1 | 1.03× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $10.64 | 4.3% | 812 | 1333.4 | 0.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-nightmare-well-worn) | 1 in 24 | $8.53 | 5.4% | 1,424 | 2076.9 | 0.69× |
| [Sticker \| Kawaii T sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t) | 1 in 13 | $8.27 | 9.8% | 3,516 | 3856.4 | 0.91× |
| [AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $8.26 | 9.8% | 3,615 | 3871.3 | 0.93× |
| [G3SG1 \| Orange Kimono (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-orange-kimono-battle-scarred) | 1 in 13 | $4.79 | 5.7% | 4,044 | 3910.9 | 1.03× |
| [PP-Bizon \| Bamboo Print (Battle-Scarred) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/pp-bizon-bamboo-print-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $4.39 | 5.4% | 4,065 | 4049.7 | 1.00× |
| [P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $4.38 | 5.5% | 4,182 | 4079.4 | 1.03× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $4.36 | 1.7% | 881 | 1249.1 | 0.71× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-well-worn) | 1 in 35 | $3.93 | 1.7% | 976 | 1417.6 | 0.69× |
| [G3SG1 \| Stinger (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-stinger-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.88 | 5.1% | 4,479 | 4248.0 | 1.05× |
| [UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-wild-child-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $3.81 | 5.0% | 4,496 | 4282.7 | 1.05× |
| [P2000 \| Turf (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $3.76 | 5.0% | 4,524 | 4317.4 | 1.05× |
| [Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sawed-off-kiss-love-battle-scarred) | 1 in 31 | $3.68 | 1.8% | 1,037 | 1586.2 | 0.65× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 22 | $3.25 | 2.3% | 1,423 | 2260.3 | 0.63× |
| [P2000 \| Panther Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-panther-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 21 | $3.17 | 2.3% | 1,471 | 2329.7 | 0.63× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/trickster-2`, 10 Nov, 02:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $7.50 $1,664 221.9x 2026-11-04 11:46 UTC

[★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [Bong](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Bong) $7.50 $1,661 221.5x 2026-11-04 11:49 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.50 $1,121 149.5x 2026-11-03 17:37 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.50 $1,100 146.6x 2026-11-09 19:29 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.50 $1,096 146.2x 2026-11-03 02:30 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [RustyBoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RustyBoy) $7.50 $1,093 145.8x 2026-11-07 13:14 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [RustyBoy](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RustyBoy) $7.50 $1,093 145.8x 2026-11-07 13:13 UTC

[★ Huntsman Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $7.50 $1,079 143.9x 2026-11-08 22:09 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=trickster-2)

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.50 $4.38 0.58x 2026-11-10 06:27 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) [MRX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MRX) $7.50 $8.26 1.10x 2026-11-10 06:27 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [MRX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MRX) $7.50 $4.38 0.58x 2026-11-10 06:27 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii T sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t) [MRX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MRX) $7.50 $8.27 1.10x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) [Morci](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Morci) $7.50 $4.38 0.58x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

[Sticker | Kawaii T sticker · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-kawaii-t) Hidden $7.50 $8.27 1.10x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

[Galil AR | Vandal (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-vandal-factory-new) Hidden $7.50 $12.10 1.61x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

[P2000 | Turf (Minimal Wear) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-turf-minimal-wear) Hidden $7.50 $3.76 0.50x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

[AK-47 | Searing Rage (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-searing-rage-minimal-wear) [MRX](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/MRX) $7.50 $8.26 1.10x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

[P250 | Visions (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-visions-field-tested) Hidden $7.50 $4.38 0.58x 2026-11-10 06:26 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $7.50 | 87.77% | 33 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $7.50 | 87.92% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $7.50 | 87.68% | 33 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $7.50 | 87.64% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $7.50 | 87.83% | 33 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $7.50 | 87.99% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $7.50 | 88.10% | 33 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $7.50 | 87.96% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $7.50 | 87.72% | 33 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $7.50 | 88.00% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $7.50 | 87.95% | 33 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $7.50 | 87.96% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $7.50 | 87.77% | 33 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $7.50 | 87.74% | 33 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $7.50 | 87.76% | 33 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 0.0% gold 0.0% rare 0.1% Ancient 0.1% red 0.3% classified 3.5% restricted 0.8% pink 38.2% violet 17.7% blue 5.3% gray 16.1% #4b69ff 8.7% blueLight 4.6% light blue 4.7% best hit $1,664 (221.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.77 on average: an expected loss of $12.23 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt