--- title: "ULTIMATE TRIP JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "ULTIMATE TRIP JOKER ($1,010.47) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.05% over 1,565 openings in 30 days." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ULTIMATE TRIP JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ULTIMATE TRIP JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker?window=all) Price · $1,010.47 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.05% · 1,565 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 110 openings · below min 7 days · 85.21% ±7.65 1,430 openings 30 days · 85.05% ±7.24 1,565 openings since tracking started · 85.05% ±7.24 1,565 openings 55.0% 82.8% 110.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker?window=24h) | 110 | 82.88% ±27.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker?window=7d) | 1,430 | 85.21% ±7.65 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker) | 1,565 | 85.05% ±7.24 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip-joker?window=all) | 1,565 | 85.05% ±7.24 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [SULTANU NR1](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SULTANU%20NR1) $1,016 $7,097 6.99x 2026-11-07 20:22 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $1,016 $7,097 6.99x 2026-11-06 22:48 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $1,016 $7,097 6.99x 2026-11-06 22:46 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [BONUS CODE: ASLAN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/BONUS%20CODE%3A%20ASLAN) $1,016 $7,097 6.99x 2026-11-06 22:43 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $1,016 $7,097 6.99x 2026-11-05 15:42 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [Sphex](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Sphex) $1,016 $7,097 6.99x 2026-11-05 12:41 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $1,016 $7,097 6.99x 2026-11-04 23:32 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $1,014 $7,097 7.00x 2026-11-05 15:42 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) [El chapo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/El%20chapo) $1,014 $7,097 7.00x 2026-11-05 15:42 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $1,014 $7,097 7.00x 2026-11-05 15:14 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=ultimate-trip-joker) [SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $994 $284 0.29x 2026-11-11 18:22 UTC [P90 | Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) Hidden $986 $155 0.16x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [SG 553 | Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) [EL MAGO TROSSARD](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/EL%20MAGO%20TROSSARD) $986 $294 0.30x 2026-11-11 18:19 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) [SIRPANZA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SIRPANZA) $994 $3,621 3.64x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) [SIRPANZA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SIRPANZA) $994 $102 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [SIRPANZA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SIRPANZA) $994 $456 0.46x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) [SIRPANZA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SIRPANZA) $994 $72.40 0.07x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [P2000 | Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) [SIRPANZA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/SIRPANZA) $994 $144 0.15x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $986 $2,021 2.05x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC [AK-47 | Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) Hidden $986 $6,863 6.96x 2026-11-11 17:21 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $7,097 (6.99x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.05 on average: an expected loss of $14.95 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt