---
title: "ULTIMATE TRIP case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops"
description: "ULTIMATE TRIP ($140.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 28 items with odds, observed 86.62% over 7,577 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [ULTIMATE TRIP](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · ULTIMATE TRIP

A case on Key-Drop (WILD CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip?window=all)

Price · $140.00

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $122.50 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 86.62% · 7,577 openings, odds method

Variance · 0.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 28.0% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 72.0% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 87.68% ±4.08 1,263 openings

7 days · 85.98% ±1.80 6,586 openings

30 days · 86.62% ±1.67 7,577 openings

since tracking started · 86.62% ±1.67 7,577 openings

83.0% 87.8% 92.5%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip?window=24h) | 1,263 | 87.68% ±4.08 | +0.0σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip?window=7d) | 6,586 | 85.98% ±1.80 | −2.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip) | 7,577 | 86.62% ±1.67 | −1.4σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/ultimate-trip?window=all) | 7,577 | 86.62% ±1.67 | −1.4σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 7,577 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AK-47 \| Wild Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-wild-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 33,333 | $6,939 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $3,645 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.5 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 10,000 | $2,042 | 0.2% | 0 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $1,685 | 0.3% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.32× |
| [★ Butterfly Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 3,333 | $1,328 | 0.3% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 3,333 | $905 | 0.2% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.44× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 1,000 | $651 | 0.5% | 7 | 7.6 | 0.92× |
| [★ Bowie Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bowie-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 833 | $572 | 0.6% | 4 | 9.1 | 0.44× |
| [AK-47 \| X-Ray (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-x-ray-well-worn) | 1 in 120 | $544 | 3.7% | 59 | 62.9 | 0.94× |
| [★ Falchion Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) | 1 in 100 | $453 | 3.7% | 85 | 75.8 | 1.12× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 87 | $393 | 3.7% | 82 | 87.1 | 0.94× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) | 1 in 75 | $302 | 3.3% | 81 | 100.8 | 0.80× |
| [SG 553 \| Hazard Pay (Field-Tested) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-hazard-pay-field-tested) | 1 in 29 | $270 | 7.6% | 226 | 259.9 | 0.87× |
| [Glock-18 \| Gamma Doppler (Field-Tested) (Emerald) weapon · red · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-gamma-doppler-field-tested-emerald) | 1 in 44 | $231 | 4.3% | 117 | 172.8 | 0.68× |
| [MP5-SD \| Oxide Oasis (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-oxide-oasis-field-tested) | 1 in 19 | $176 | 7.6% | 398 | 398.6 | 1.00× |
| [P90 \| Run and Hide (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-run-and-hide-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $156 | 7.6% | 491 | 450.8 | 1.09× |
| [P2000 \| Ocean Foam (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p2000-ocean-foam-minimal-wear) | 1 in 16 | $144 | 7.6% | 488 | 487.2 | 1.00× |
| [Galil AR \| Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) | 1 in 12 | $102 | 6.9% | 596 | 627.4 | 0.95× |
| [★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-night-well-worn) | 1 in 12 | $94.15 | 6.6% | 616 | 646.3 | 0.95× |
| [UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $89.39 | 6.4% | 683 | 660.0 | 1.03× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $87.50 | 1.4% | 98 | 146.2 | 0.67× |
| [FAMAS \| Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) | 1 in 11 | $82.70 | 6.1% | 715 | 681.2 | 1.05× |
| [StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-well-worn) | 1 in 11 | $77.09 | 5.8% | 716 | 700.1 | 1.02× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $74.49 | 1.5% | 147 | 183.4 | 0.80× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 41 | $74.47 | 1.5% | 144 | 183.4 | 0.79× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $73.13 | 1.5% | 131 | 188.7 | 0.69× |
| [Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11 | $71.89 | 5.6% | 685 | 719.8 | 0.95× |
| [StatTrak™ MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-battle-scarred) | 1 in 11 | $71.83 | 5.6% | 763 | 720.6 | 1.06× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/ultimate-trip`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $140 $1,704 12.17x 2026-11-04 23:55 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $140 $1,696 12.11x 2026-11-05 18:20 UTC

[★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $140 $1,398 9.98x 2026-11-03 22:51 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $140 $906 6.47x 2026-11-07 17:02 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [kOUKi-](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kOUKi-) $140 $652 4.66x 2026-11-04 10:49 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Chapiuski](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chapiuski) $140 $652 4.66x 2026-11-03 23:40 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) [Chapiuski](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Chapiuski) $140 $652 4.66x 2026-11-03 23:40 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $140 $652 4.66x 2026-11-03 22:18 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $140 $651 4.65x 2026-11-11 07:49 UTC

[★ Falchion Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $140 $651 4.65x 2026-11-10 09:37 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=ultimate-trip)

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $140 $82.70 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $140 $89.39 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $140 $82.70 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Stalker (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mac-10-stalker-well-worn) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $140 $77.09 0.55x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[StatTrak™ MP9 | Starlight Protector (Battle-Scarred) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-mp9-starlight-protector-battle-scarred) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $140 $71.83 0.51x 2026-11-11 13:07 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) Hidden $140 $74.43 0.53x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/five-seven-angry-mob-minimal-wear) Hidden $140 $72.46 0.52x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[Galil AR | Orange DDPAT (Factory New) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-orange-ddpat-factory-new) Hidden $140 $102 0.73x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[FAMAS | Sundown (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-sundown-field-tested) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $140 $82.70 0.59x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

[UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-crime-scene-minimal-wear) [AvoCado](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AvoCado) $140 $89.39 0.64x 2026-11-11 13:06 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $140 | 87.50% | 28 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $140 | 87.89% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $140 | 87.73% | 28 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $140 | 87.75% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $140 | 87.97% | 28 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $140 | 87.84% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $140 | 87.83% | 28 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $140 | 87.89% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $140 | 87.85% | 28 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $140 | 87.76% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $140 | 87.92% | 28 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $140 | 88.00% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $140 | 87.78% | 28 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $140 | 87.80% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $140 | 87.82% | 28 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $140 | 87.77% | 28 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $140 | 87.93% | 28 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 23.8% restricted 8.7% red 29.1% #d32ee6 3.4% pink 11.2% classified 6.4% violet 8.3% blue 9.0% best hit $1,704 (12.17x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt