---
title: "UNBOUND case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "UNBOUND ($24.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.94% from 31 items with odds, observed 85.87% over 31.2K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound
rendered: 2026-11-11T15:03Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [UNBOUND](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · UNBOUND

A case on Key-Drop (HALLOWEEN), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound?window=all)

Price · $24.00

Advertised RTP · 87.94% · EV $21.10 from 31 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 85.87% · 31.2K openings, odds method

Variance · 1.5× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 27.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.8% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

7 days · 85.74% ±1.60 23K openings

30 days · 85.87% ±1.38 31.2K openings

since tracking started · 85.87% ±1.38 31.2K openings

83.5% 86.0% 88.5%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.84% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (84.49% – 87.25%, 31,204 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound?window=7d) | 23K | 85.74% ±1.60 | −2.5σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound) | 31.2K | 85.87% ±1.38 | −2.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/unbound?window=all) | 31.2K | 85.87% ±1.38 | −2.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 31 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 31.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) knife · legendary · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) | 1 in 50,000 | $3,075 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 33,333 | $2,008 | 0.3% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 20,000 | $1,875 | 0.4% | 1 | 1.6 | 0.64× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 10,000 | $621 | 0.3% | 2 | 3.1 | 0.64× |
| [★ Skeleton Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/skeleton-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 5,000 | $346 | 0.3% | 5 | 6.3 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $293 | 0.1% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · covert · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,000 | $251 | 0.6% | 15 | 15.7 | 0.95× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-well-worn) | 1 in 10,000 | $207 | 0.1% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $201 | 0.1% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 189 | $170 | 4.3% | 134 | 166.6 | 0.80× |
| [M4A1-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-printstream-battle-scarred) | 1 in 10,000 | $160 | 0.1% | 1 | 3.1 | 0.32× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 185 | $82.30 | 2.1% | 94 | 169.7 | 0.55× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Minimal Wear) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-minimal-wear) | 1 in 250 | $80.76 | 1.5% | 54 | 125.7 | 0.43× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-field-tested) | 1 in 222 | $76.13 | 1.6% | 89 | 141.4 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-well-worn) | 1 in 147 | $73.32 | 2.4% | 138 | 213.7 | 0.65× |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-battle-scarred) | 1 in 143 | $72.45 | 2.4% | 137 | 220.0 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 185 | $69.67 | 1.8% | 110 | 169.7 | 0.65× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 175 | $67.73 | 1.8% | 94 | 179.2 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) | 1 in 12 | $34.94 | 13.5% | 2,603 | 2567.9 | 1.01× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 23 | $30.03 | 6.3% | 752 | 1395.5 | 0.54× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 10.3% | $27.52 | 13.5% | 3,345 | 3250.0 | 1.03× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $26.52 | 7.2% | 1,147 | 1791.6 | 0.64× |
| [MP9 \| Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) | 1 in 13 | $15.12 | 5.5% | 2,515 | 2413.9 | 1.04× |
| [M249 \| Contrast Spray (Factory New) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/m249-contrast-spray-factory-new) | 1 in 13 | $14.59 | 5.4% | 2,503 | 2457.9 | 1.02× |
| [StatTrak™ Nova \| Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $13.45 | 5.1% | 2,608 | 2520.8 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-field-tested) | 1 in 28 | $13.41 | 2.3% | 719 | 1134.7 | 0.63× |
| [XM1014 \| VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) | 1 in 12 | $12.08 | 4.8% | 2,651 | 2646.5 | 1.00× |
| [G3SG1 \| New Roots (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-minimal-wear) | 1 in 12 | $11.25 | 4.6% | 2,794 | 2709.4 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-elite-build-well-worn) | 1 in 21 | $10.90 | 2.5% | 999 | 1511.8 | 0.66× |
| [Souvenir P250 \| Black & Tan (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $10.80 | 4.5% | 2,835 | 2750.2 | 1.03× |
| [Tec-9 \| Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) | 1 in 11 | $9.94 | 4.3% | 2,881 | 2853.9 | 1.01× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/unbound`, 10 Nov, 02:22 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $24.00 $1,895 78.95x 2026-11-03 05:21 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $634 26.41x 2026-11-02 23:01 UTC

[AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $621 25.88x 2026-11-09 21:56 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=unbound)

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-minimal-wear) [Banana Leclerc](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Banana%20Leclerc) $24.00 $11.25 0.47x 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC

[G3SG1 | New Roots (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-new-roots-minimal-wear) [Banana Leclerc](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Banana%20Leclerc) $24.00 $11.25 0.47x 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $9.94 0.41x 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $10.80 0.45x 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC

[StatTrak™ Nova | Rising Skull (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-nova-rising-skull-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.00 $13.45 0.56x 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC

[MP9 | Hydra (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-hydra-minimal-wear) Hidden $24.00 $15.12 0.63x 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC

[Tec-9 | Safety Net (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-safety-net-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $9.94 0.41x 2026-11-10 05:57 UTC

[XM1014 | VariCamo Blue (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/xm1014-varicamo-blue-field-tested) [Banana Leclerc](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Banana%20Leclerc) $24.00 $12.08 0.50x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC

[USP-S | Road Rash (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-road-rash-battle-scarred) [Banana Leclerc](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Banana%20Leclerc) $24.00 $34.94 1.46x 2026-11-10 05:56 UTC

[Souvenir P250 | Black & Tan (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-p250-black-and-tan-factory-new) Hidden $24.00 $10.80 0.45x 2026-11-10 05:55 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $24.00 | 87.94% | 31 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $24.00 | 87.71% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $24.00 | 87.69% | 31 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $24.00 | 87.56% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $24.00 | 87.93% | 31 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $24.00 | 87.82% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $24.00 | 87.79% | 31 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $24.00 | 87.87% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $24.00 | 87.91% | 31 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $24.00 | 87.76% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $24.00 | 87.76% | 31 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $24.00 | 87.92% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $24.00 | 88.00% | 31 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $24.00 | 87.93% | 31 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $24.00 | 87.80% | 31 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed legendary 0.0% covert 3.0% red 11.7% restricted 8.2% pink 10.3% classified 16.1% gray 7.8% violet 8.0% blue 34.9% best hit $1,895 (78.95x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.94 on average: an expected loss of $12.06 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt