--- title: "USP-S JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "USP-S JOKER ($32.71) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.09% over 1,465 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T18:29Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [USP-S JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · USP-S JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker?window=all) Price · $32.71 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.09% · 1,465 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 88 openings · below min 7 days · 87.15% ±9.07 1,212 openings 30 days · 86.09% ±7.97 1,465 openings since tracking started · 86.09% ±7.97 1,465 openings 61.5% 101.5% 141.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker?window=24h) | 88 | 101.74% ±39.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker?window=7d) | 1,212 | 87.15% ±9.07 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker) | 1,465 | 86.09% ±7.97 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s-joker?window=all) | 1,465 | 86.09% ±7.97 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=usp-s-joker) [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [HUSTLER](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HUSTLER) $32.12 $298 9.28x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [USP-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) Hidden $31.80 $3.32 0.10x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [USP-S | Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) [HUSTLER](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HUSTLER) $31.80 $298 9.38x 2026-11-11 18:11 UTC [USP-S | Check Engine weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $32.12 $0.81 0.03x 2026-11-11 17:11 UTC [USP-S | Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) Hidden $31.80 $3.28 0.10x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC [USP-S | Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) Hidden $31.80 $7.10 0.22x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC [USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) [kacper hehe. \[\*\]](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/kacper%20hehe.%20%5B*%5D-76561198197837162) $31.80 $0.48 0.02x 2026-11-11 17:10 UTC [USP-S | Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) [TraficanteDeAlfajores](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TraficanteDeAlfajores) $32.12 $30.80 0.96x 2026-11-11 14:59 UTC [USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) Hidden $31.86 $0.56 0.02x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC [USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $31.86 $133 4.18x 2026-11-11 14:58 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.09 on average: an expected loss of $13.91 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt