---
title: "USP-S case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "USP-S ($1.19) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 99 items with odds, observed 82.84% over 30.7K openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:02Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [USP-S](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · USP-S

A case on Key-Drop (WEAPON CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s?window=all)

Price · $1.19

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $1.04 from 99 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 82.84% · 30.7K openings, odds method

Variance · 3.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 17.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.6% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 79.74% ±6.62 3,323 openings

7 days · 82.51% ±2.37 26.9K openings

30 days · 82.84% ±2.23 30.7K openings

since tracking started · 82.84% ±2.23 30.7K openings

72.5% 80.3% 88.0%

**Outside band, 30 days.** Advertised 87.34% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (80.61% – 85.07%, 30,736 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s?window=24h) | 3,323 | 79.74% ±6.62 | −2.2σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s?window=7d) | 26.9K | 82.51% ±2.37 | −4.0σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s) | 30.7K | 82.84% ±2.23 | −4.0σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/usp-s?window=all) | 30.7K | 82.84% ±2.23 | −4.0σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 99 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 30.8K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [USP-S \| Target Acquired (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-target-acquired-minimal-wear) | 1 in 50,000 | $301 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $134 | 0.4% | 1 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $81.04 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $79.31 | 0.4% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $58.95 | 0.4% | 3 | 2.2 | 1.39× |
| [USP-S \| Orion (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orion-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $49.30 | 0.4% | 0 | 2.5 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-printstream-field-tested) | 1 in 12,500 | $46.68 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.5 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-whiteout-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $42.85 | 0.4% | 5 | 2.8 | 1.80× |
| [USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-the-traitor-field-tested) | 1 in 11,111 | $40.50 | 0.4% | 2 | 2.8 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Business Class (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-business-class-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $36.35 | 0.3% | 3 | 3.1 | 0.97× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $36.05 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-field-tested) | 1 in 25,000 | $31.14 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Caiman (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-caiman-minimal-wear) | 1 in 8,333 | $30.58 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.7 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-monster-mashup-field-tested) | 1 in 6,667 | $23.44 | 0.3% | 5 | 4.6 | 1.08× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-well-worn) | 1 in 16,667 | $22.92 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-spiral-glitch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 14,286 | $22.06 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Overgrowth (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-overgrowth-field-tested) | 1 in 5,882 | $20.36 | 0.3% | 3 | 5.2 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-minimal-wear) | 1 in 33,333 | $16.13 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.9 | — |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $14.83 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.8 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Pathfinder (Minimal Wear) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pathfinder-minimal-wear) | 1 in 4,000 | $14.16 | 0.3% | 8 | 7.7 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-factory-new) | 1 in 25,000 | $13.20 | 0.1% | 1 | 1.2 | 0.81× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 14,286 | $8.07 | 0.1% | 0 | 2.2 | 0.00× |
| [USP-S \| Stainless (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-stainless-field-tested) | 1 in 3,448 | $7.86 | 0.2% | 6 | 8.9 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Para Green (Field-Tested) weapon · 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-para-green-field-tested) | 1 in 2,083 | $7.16 | 0.3% | 27 | 14.8 | 1.83× |
| [USP-S \| Forest Leaves (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-forest-leaves-factory-new) | 1 in 2,083 | $7.11 | 0.3% | 9 | 14.8 | 0.61× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 5,882 | $6.81 | 0.1% | 2 | 5.2 | 0.38× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 11,111 | $6.69 | 0.1% | 1 | 2.8 | 0.36× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-factory-new) | 1 in 50,000 | $5.74 | 0.0% | 0 | 0.6 | — |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-field-tested) | 1 in 5,556 | $5.30 | 0.1% | 3 | 5.5 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-well-worn) | 1 in 4,348 | $4.74 | 0.1% | 3 | 7.1 | 0.42× |
| [USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blueprint-battle-scarred) | 1 in 4,000 | $4.51 | 0.1% | 14 | 7.7 | 1.82× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 415 | $4.18 | 1.0% | 19 | 74.2 | 0.26× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-factory-new) | 1 in 2,857 | $4.18 | 0.1% | 201 | 10.8 | 18.65× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 431 | $4.15 | 0.9% | 30 | 71.4 | 0.42× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 407 | $4.14 | 1.0% | 42 | 75.8 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 395 | $4.08 | 1.0% | 32 | 77.9 | 0.41× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 394 | $3.97 | 1.0% | 34 | 78.2 | 0.43× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 392 | $3.96 | 1.0% | 56 | 78.5 | 0.71× |
| [USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $3.61 | 2.1% | 76 | 186.6 | 0.41× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Field-Tested) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-field-tested) | 1 in 213 | $3.34 | 1.5% | 79 | 144.7 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-blood-tiger-minimal-wear) | 1 in 205 | $3.28 | 1.5% | 64 | 150.0 | 0.43× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-minimal-wear) | 1 in 800 | $3.23 | 0.4% | 81 | 38.5 | 2.10× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-minimal-wear) | 1 in 184 | $3.19 | 1.7% | 84 | 167.2 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested) weapon · #8847ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-guardian-field-tested) | 1 in 165 | $3.02 | 1.8% | 100 | 186.9 | 0.53× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-factory-new) | 1 in 97 | $2.97 | 2.9% | 62 | 316.6 | 0.20× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $2.88 | 6.1% | 166 | 682.8 | 0.24× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $2.63 | 6.5% | 502 | 788.4 | 0.64× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-minimal-wear) | 1 in 61 | $2.60 | 4.1% | 251 | 506.0 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-factory-new) | 1 in 43 | $2.16 | 4.8% | 349 | 717.6 | 0.49× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-factory-new) | 1 in 72 | $1.63 | 2.2% | 211 | 427.2 | 0.49× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-factory-new) | 1 in 148 | $1.60 | 1.0% | 140 | 207.9 | 0.67× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-factory-new) | 1 in 123 | $1.53 | 1.2% | 134 | 250.1 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-field-tested) | 1 in 46 | $1.34 | 2.8% | 338 | 667.1 | 0.51× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-field-tested) | 1 in 32 | $1.28 | 3.8% | 507 | 959.3 | 0.53× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-factory-new) | 1 in 125 | $1.28 | 1.0% | 122 | 246.1 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Well-Worn) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-well-worn) | 1 in 32 | $1.27 | 3.9% | 407 | 974.4 | 0.42× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $1.21 | 3.2% | 311 | 849.4 | 0.37× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-minimal-wear) | 1 in 112 | $1.18 | 1.0% | 258 | 275.6 | 0.94× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-factory-new) | 1 in 129 | $1.18 | 0.9% | 164 | 238.1 | 0.69× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Factory New) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-factory-new) | 1 in 351 | $1.16 | 0.3% | 63 | 87.8 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-bleeding-edge-battle-scarred) | 1 in 76 | $1.13 | 1.4% | 237 | 405.6 | 0.58× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-minimal-wear) | 1 in 148 | $1.06 | 0.7% | 129 | 207.6 | 0.62× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $0.91 | 1.2% | 237 | 434.2 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-minimal-wear) | 1 in 144 | $0.88 | 0.6% | 110 | 214.3 | 0.51× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $0.85 | 1.2% | 250 | 435.8 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-torque-field-tested) | 1 in 69 | $0.84 | 1.2% | 268 | 443.2 | 0.60× |
| [USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-black-lotus-battle-scarred) | 1 in 61 | $0.82 | 1.3% | 270 | 502.6 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-battle-scarred) | 1 in 63 | $0.81 | 1.2% | 256 | 492.1 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.79 | 0.8% | 176 | 308.9 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-battle-scarred) | 1 in 100 | $0.79 | 0.8% | 163 | 308.9 | 0.53× |
| [USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-lead-conduit-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $0.79 | 1.3% | 244 | 509.7 | 0.48× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-battle-scarred) | 1 in 80 | $0.68 | 0.8% | 221 | 386.2 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $0.66 | 0.8% | 213 | 397.6 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-well-worn) | 1 in 77 | $0.66 | 0.8% | 196 | 402.5 | 0.49× |
| [USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-ticket-to-hell-field-tested) | 1 in 77 | $0.66 | 0.8% | 217 | 402.5 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-flashback-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.59 | 0.9% | 275 | 465.0 | 0.59× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-minimal-wear) | 1 in 75 | $0.57 | 0.7% | 208 | 411.8 | 0.51× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-well-worn) | 1 in 61 | $0.57 | 0.9% | 253 | 505.1 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 61 | $0.57 | 0.9% | 276 | 505.1 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-minimal-wear) | 1 in 130 | $0.57 | 0.4% | 116 | 237.1 | 0.49× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-field-tested) | 1 in 76 | $0.56 | 0.7% | 210 | 403.1 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $0.55 | 0.5% | 164 | 284.9 | 0.58× |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $0.53 | 0.9% | 319 | 559.0 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Well-Worn) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-well-worn) | 1 in 71 | $0.53 | 0.7% | 199 | 435.5 | 0.46× |
| [USP-S \| Check Engine (Battle-Scarred) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-check-engine-battle-scarred) | 1 in 67 | $0.51 | 0.7% | 280 | 459.5 | 0.61× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Minimal Wear) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-minimal-wear) | 1 in 100 | $0.47 | 0.5% | 160 | 307.0 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-well-worn) | 1 in 74 | $0.42 | 0.5% | 236 | 415.1 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Minimal Wear) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $0.36 | 0.8% | 365 | 680.0 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-field-tested) | 1 in 66 | $0.35 | 0.5% | 243 | 463.8 | 0.52× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-field-tested) | 1 in 57 | $0.35 | 0.6% | 287 | 535.9 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 55 | $0.34 | 0.6% | 303 | 558.0 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $0.32 | 0.5% | 289 | 531.9 | 0.54× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Field-Tested) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $0.32 | 0.5% | 336 | 531.9 | 0.63× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $0.29 | 0.5% | 351 | 603.6 | 0.58× |
| [USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-tropical-breeze-battle-scarred) | 1 in 50 | $0.29 | 0.6% | 381 | 610.4 | 0.62× |
| [USP-S \| 27 (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $0.26 | 0.6% | 398 | 703.4 | 0.57× |
| [USP-S \| PC-GRN (Minimal Wear) weapon · Rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn-minimal-wear) | 1 in 17 | $0.26 | 1.5% | 1,027 | 1865.4 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) | 1 in 21 | $0.21 | 0.9% | 791 | 1446.2 | 0.55× |
| [USP-S \| Desert Tactical (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.20 | 1.1% | 982 | 1769.6 | 0.55× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/usp-s`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[USP-S | Neo-Noir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-neo-noir-field-tested) Hidden $1.19 $134 112.9x 2026-11-10 11:07 UTC

[USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.19 $79.28 66.62x 2026-11-03 23:10 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [꧁ঔৣ☬✞Ibalgin1200✞](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%EA%A7%81%E0%A6%94%E0%A7%A3%E2%98%AC%E2%9C%9EIbalgin1200%E2%9C%9E) $1.19 $77.55 65.17x 2026-11-07 22:00 UTC

[USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-kill-confirmed-field-tested) [ZERO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZERO) $1.19 $77.54 65.16x 2026-11-08 15:24 UTC

[USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-dark-water-field-tested) Hidden $1.19 $77.18 64.86x 2026-11-06 22:41 UTC

[USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) [ZERO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/ZERO) $1.19 $60.02 50.44x 2026-11-08 14:51 UTC

[USP-S | Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) Hidden $1.19 $60.02 50.44x 2026-11-08 14:12 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=usp-s)

[USP-S | Royal Guard weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard) [Lush](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lush) $1.19 $1.05 0.88x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn) [Lush](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Lush) $1.19 $0.36 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:59 UTC

[USP-S | Desert Tactical weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical) [la gară ☁](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/la%20gar%C4%83%20%E2%98%81) $1.19 $0.61 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:58 UTC

[USP-S | Desert Tactical (Minimal Wear) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical-minimal-wear) [la gară ☁](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/la%20gar%C4%83%20%E2%98%81) $1.19 $0.57 0.48x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[USP-S | Night Ops (Field-Tested) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-night-ops-field-tested) Hidden $1.19 $0.20 0.17x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) Hidden $1.19 $3.93 3.30x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[USP-S | Alpine Camo (Well-Worn) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-alpine-camo-well-worn) Hidden $1.19 $0.39 0.33x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC

[USP-S | Desert Tactical weapon · blueLight](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-desert-tactical) [RS-600-BT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS-600-BT) $1.19 $0.61 0.51x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[USP-S | PC-GRN weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-pc-grn) [RS-600-BT](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/RS-600-BT) $1.19 $0.36 0.30x 2026-11-11 12:48 UTC

[USP-S | 27 weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-27) [elSimione](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/elSimione) $1.19 $0.32 0.27x 2026-11-11 12:43 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $1.19 | 87.50% | 99 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $1.19 | 87.01% | 99 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $1.19 | 87.47% | 99 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $1.19 | 86.98% | 99 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $1.19 | 86.90% | 99 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $1.19 | 87.79% | 99 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $1.19 | 87.45% | 99 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $1.19 | 87.28% | 99 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $1.19 | 86.91% | 99 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $1.19 | 87.83% | 99 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $1.19 | 87.65% | 99 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $1.19 | 87.28% | 99 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $1.19 | 87.42% | 99 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $1.19 | 87.59% | 99 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $1.19 | 87.16% | 99 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $1.19 | 86.84% | 99 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $1.19 | 88.09% | 99 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed 2 0.0% classified 0.8% covert 0.0% restricted 11.5% red 0.0% mil spec 20.7% pink 0.5% industrial 1.1% Rare 13.0% #4b69ff 8.7% blue 19.8% Classified 0.3% Mythical 6.9% violet 1.9% #8847ff 0.6% Restricted 2.3% uncommon 4.8% Uncommon 1.3% light blue 5.7% best hit $134 (112.9x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt