--- title: "VALEK JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "VALEK JOKER ($589.40) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.44% over 69 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker rendered: 2026-11-12T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [VALEK JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · VALEK JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker?window=all) Price · $589.40 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.44% · 69 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 22 openings · below min 30 days · 69 openings · below min since tracking started · 69 openings · below min -0.5% 73.0% 146.5% **Small sample.** 69 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker?window=7d) | 22 | 55.56% ±90.1 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker) | 69 | 84.44% ±52.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek-joker?window=all) | 69 | 84.44% ±52.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [lmeeent](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/lmeeent) $591 $6,040 10.22x 2026-11-09 18:28 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $593 $6,040 10.18x 2026-11-03 23:49 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) Hidden $593 $6,040 10.18x 2026-11-03 23:49 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $593 $2,242 3.78x 2026-11-03 23:49 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $593 $2,242 3.78x 2026-11-03 23:49 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) Hidden $593 $2,242 3.78x 2026-11-03 23:49 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $593 $1,661 2.80x 2026-11-03 23:49 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [AnoN](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/AnoN) $593 $1,661 2.80x 2026-11-03 23:49 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $594 $923 1.55x 2026-11-04 18:28 UTC [★ Nomad Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) Hidden $593 $923 1.56x 2026-11-03 23:49 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=valek-joker) [AWP | Crakow! weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $591 $25.01 0.04x 2026-11-10 06:22 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $591 $119 0.20x 2026-11-10 06:22 UTC [Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) Hidden $591 $23.00 0.04x 2026-11-10 06:22 UTC [AWP | Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $591 $27.52 0.05x 2026-11-10 06:22 UTC [AWP | Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) Hidden $591 $53.49 0.09x 2026-11-10 06:22 UTC [★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) [(kick)use code MATANBRITO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%28kick%29use%20code%20MATANBRITO) $591 $131 0.22x 2026-11-10 06:22 UTC [M4A4 | Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) [lmeeent](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/lmeeent) $591 $6,040 10.22x 2026-11-09 18:28 UTC [Glock-18 | AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $594 $23.38 0.04x 2026-11-07 18:47 UTC [AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01) [-melo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-melo) $594 $29.84 0.05x 2026-11-07 18:47 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · gold · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $590 $272 0.46x 2026-11-07 18:46 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $6,040 (10.22x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.44 on average: an expected loss of $15.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt