---
title: "VALEK case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "VALEK ($34.75) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 56 items with odds, observed 83.28% over 820 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [VALEK](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · VALEK

A case on Key-Drop (FELIPEIRA), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek?window=all)

Price · $34.75

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $30.41 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 83.28% · 820 openings, odds method

Variance · 2.7× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 20.5% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 70.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 99 openings · below min

7 days · 85.08% ±12.48 619 openings

30 days · 83.28% ±10.91 820 openings

since tracking started · 83.28% ±10.91 820 openings

34.5% 67.3% 100.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek?window=24h) | 99 | 67.31% ±32.0 | — | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek?window=7d) | 619 | 85.08% ±12.5 | −0.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek) | 820 | 83.28% ±10.9 | −0.8σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/valek?window=all) | 820 | 83.28% ±10.9 | −0.8σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 820 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [M4A4 \| Howl (Field-Tested) weapon · contraband](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-howl-field-tested) | 1 in 33,333 | $6,040 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [★ Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Ruby) knife · covert · Ruby](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-ruby) | 1 in 14,286 | $2,204 | 0.5% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,707 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.1 | — |
| [★ Nomad Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Sapphire) knife · legendary · Sapphire](https://gambatracker.com/items/nomad-knife-doppler-factory-new-sapphire) | 1 in 2,500 | $870 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.3 | — |
| [Desert Eagle \| Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) | 1 in 2,500 | $787 | 1.0% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $602 | 1.0% | 0 | 0.4 | — |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · gold · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 833 | $269 | 1.1% | 1 | 1.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Master Piece (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-master-piece-field-tested) | 1 in 476 | $147 | 1.0% | 1 | 1.7 | 0.58× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-minimal-wear) | 1 in 52 | $129 | 8.2% | 0 | 15.9 | 0.00× |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) | 1 in 40 | $114 | 9.3% | 21 | 20.3 | 1.03× |
| [★ Gut Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $83.22 | 5.2% | 15 | 15.6 | 0.96× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-well-worn) | 1 in 80 | $61.44 | 2.5% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.17× |
| [Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-sugar-rush-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $57.61 | 2.7% | 11 | 11.6 | 0.94× |
| [★ Navaja Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) | 1 in 36 | $57.35 | 5.2% | 25 | 22.6 | 1.10× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-field-tested) | 1 in 114 | $54.81 | 1.6% | 10 | 7.2 | 1.39× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-well-worn) | 1 in 108 | $53.32 | 1.6% | 10 | 7.6 | 1.31× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-field-tested) | 1 in 133 | $53.18 | 1.3% | 4 | 6.1 | 0.65× |
| [AWP \| Wildfire (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-wildfire-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $43.82 | 8.2% | 22 | 46.8 | 0.47× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-well-worn) | 1 in 20 | $41.56 | 7.0% | 22 | 41.9 | 0.53× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-minimal-wear) | 1 in 25 | $35.91 | 4.8% | 17 | 33.3 | 0.51× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-well-worn) | 1 in 27 | $33.91 | 4.1% | 22 | 30.4 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-well-worn) | 1 in 49 | $33.10 | 2.2% | 9 | 16.8 | 0.54× |
| [AK-47 \| The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) | 1 in 27 | $31.79 | 3.9% | 30 | 30.6 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $30.80 | 2.4% | 19 | 19.4 | 0.98× |
| [AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01-field-tested) | 1 in 37 | $28.80 | 2.6% | 10 | 22.1 | 0.45× |
| [M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-full-throttle-battle-scarred) | 1 in 18 | $27.90 | 5.1% | 18 | 45.3 | 0.40× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-field-tested) | 1 in 80 | $26.52 | 1.1% | 12 | 10.2 | 1.17× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-field-tested) | 1 in 111 | $23.67 | 0.7% | 8 | 7.4 | 1.08× |
| [Glock-18 \| AXIA (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-axia-field-tested) | 1 in 33 | $23.00 | 2.3% | 28 | 24.5 | 1.14× |
| [AWP \| Crakow! (Well-Worn) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-crakow-well-worn) | 1 in 60 | $22.06 | 1.2% | 10 | 13.7 | 0.73× |
| [P250 \| Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) | 1 in 32 | $21.63 | 2.2% | 31 | 25.4 | 1.22× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-well-worn) | 1 in 91 | $20.76 | 0.8% | 4 | 9.0 | 0.44× |
| [M4A4 \| Cyber Security (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-cyber-security-battle-scarred) | 1 in 90 | $20.63 | 0.8% | 7 | 9.1 | 0.77× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Factory New) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-factory-new) | 1 in 500 | $18.41 | 0.1% | 0 | 1.6 | 0.00× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-factory-new) | 1 in 303 | $14.87 | 0.2% | 4 | 2.7 | 1.48× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 125 | $9.03 | 0.2% | 5 | 6.6 | 0.76× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-factory-new) | 1 in 175 | $8.56 | 0.2% | 2 | 4.7 | 0.43× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $8.07 | 0.2% | 3 | 6.7 | 0.45× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-minimal-wear) | 1 in 95 | $7.25 | 0.3% | 4 | 8.6 | 0.46× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Minimal Wear) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-minimal-wear) | 1 in 101 | $6.69 | 0.2% | 7 | 8.1 | 0.86× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-minimal-wear) | 1 in 93 | $5.77 | 0.2% | 7 | 8.9 | 0.79× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-field-tested) | 1 in 58 | $5.33 | 0.3% | 10 | 14.1 | 0.71× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-well-worn) | 1 in 57 | $5.29 | 0.3% | 6 | 14.3 | 0.42× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-field-tested) | 1 in 53 | $5.27 | 0.3% | 11 | 15.6 | 0.71× |
| [MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp5-sd-phosphor-battle-scarred) | 1 in 51 | $4.92 | 0.3% | 3 | 16.0 | 0.19× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $4.73 | 0.4% | 19 | 18.5 | 1.03× |
| [SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $4.73 | 0.4% | 16 | 18.5 | 0.86× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $4.18 | 0.3% | 20 | 19.2 | 1.04× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-field-tested) | 1 in 47 | $4.15 | 0.3% | 8 | 17.4 | 0.46× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) | 1 in 42 | $4.14 | 0.3% | 23 | 19.5 | 1.18× |
| [USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-well-worn) | 1 in 41 | $4.08 | 0.3% | 10 | 19.9 | 0.50× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-battle-scarred) | 1 in 44 | $3.97 | 0.3% | 10 | 18.7 | 0.53× |
| [USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) | 1 in 44 | $3.96 | 0.3% | 20 | 18.8 | 1.07× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Well-Worn) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $3.94 | 0.3% | 11 | 16.3 | 0.67× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-battle-scarred) | 1 in 46 | $3.71 | 0.3% | 14 | 18.0 | 0.78× |
| [M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a4-evil-daimyo-field-tested) | 1 in 41 | $3.47 | 0.3% | 16 | 20.1 | 0.80× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/valek`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [GIGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GIGA) $34.75 $799 23.01x 2026-11-08 10:24 UTC

[Desert Eagle | Blaze (Factory New) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-blaze-factory-new) [GIGA](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/GIGA) $34.75 $783 22.53x 2026-11-08 10:23 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=valek)

[★ Survival Knife | Case Hardened knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-case-hardened) [na\_ch1lle](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/na_ch1lle) $34.75 $120 3.46x 2026-11-11 10:27 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex) [✪ Señor Sh4dovV](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AA%20Se%C3%B1or%20Sh4dovV) $34.75 $4.54 0.13x 2026-11-11 07:56 UTC

[AK-47 | The Oligarch (Battle-Scarred) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-the-oligarch-battle-scarred) Hidden $34.75 $31.79 0.91x 2026-11-11 07:55 UTC

[★ Navaja Knife | Ultraviolet (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/navaja-knife-ultraviolet-field-tested) Hidden $34.75 $57.35 1.65x 2026-11-11 07:55 UTC

[USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-jawbreaker-well-worn) Hidden $34.75 $3.96 0.11x 2026-11-11 07:55 UTC

[USP-S | Cortex (Battle-Scarred) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-cortex-battle-scarred) [✪ Señor Sh4dovV](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E2%9C%AA%20Se%C3%B1or%20Sh4dovV) $34.75 $4.14 0.12x 2026-11-11 07:55 UTC

[SG 553 | Cyrex weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/sg-553-cyrex) [4 tabua](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/4%20tabua) $34.75 $5.35 0.15x 2026-11-11 02:34 UTC

[P250 | Splash (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-splash-minimal-wear) [4 tabua](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/4%20tabua) $34.75 $21.63 0.62x 2026-11-11 02:31 UTC

[★ Gut Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/gut-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) [???????????????????????? ツ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%83%84) $34.75 $83.22 2.39x 2026-11-11 00:38 UTC

[AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-orbit-mk01) [Zimbo489](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Zimbo489) $34.75 $32.60 0.94x 2026-11-11 00:11 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $34.75 | 87.50% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $34.75 | 87.65% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $34.75 | 87.59% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $34.75 | 87.66% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $34.75 | 87.69% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $34.75 | 87.91% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $34.75 | 87.27% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $34.75 | 87.52% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $34.75 | 87.99% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $34.75 | 87.95% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $34.75 | 87.55% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $34.75 | 87.31% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $34.75 | 87.72% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $34.75 | 87.51% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $34.75 | 87.66% | 56 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $34.75 | 87.65% | 56 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $34.75 | 87.24% | 56 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed contraband 0.0% covert 14.7% legendary 0.0% rare 8.4% epic 0.1% gold 2.1% classified 18.4% red 15.1% restricted 17.4% violet 2.7% pink 14.5% Legendary 1.7% Classified 2.4% Mythical 2.5% best hit $799 (23.01x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt