--- title: "VEST JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "VEST JOKER ($537.87) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.26% over 162 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T21:45Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [VEST JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · VEST JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker?window=all) Price · $537.87 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.26% · 162 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 7 openings · below min 7 days · 149 openings · below min 30 days · 162 openings · below min since tracking started · 162 openings · below min 21.0% 79.8% 138.5% **Small sample.** 162 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker?window=24h) | 7 | 79.73% ±58.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker?window=7d) | 149 | 87.09% ±19.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker) | 162 | 92.26% ±19.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vest-joker?window=all) | 162 | 92.26% ±19.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [-sexmode](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-sexmode) $540 $2,835 5.25x 2026-11-03 21:33 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [-sexmode](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/-sexmode) $540 $2,835 5.25x 2026-11-03 21:32 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Zilk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Zilk) $531 $2,829 5.33x 2026-11-07 18:19 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) [Zilk](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Zilk) $536 $2,805 5.23x 2026-11-07 18:20 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $536 $2,805 5.23x 2026-11-05 15:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $536 $2,805 5.23x 2026-11-05 15:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $536 $2,805 5.23x 2026-11-05 15:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $536 $2,805 5.23x 2026-11-05 15:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $536 $2,805 5.23x 2026-11-05 15:13 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $523 $2,741 5.24x 2026-11-10 09:50 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=vest-joker) [AK-47 | Case Hardened weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $528 $269 0.51x 2026-11-11 16:47 UTC [AK-47 | Case Hardened (Well-Worn) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-case-hardened-well-worn) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $523 $219 0.42x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-tiger-tooth-factory-new) Hidden $523 $1,342 2.56x 2026-11-11 16:45 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $528 $240 0.46x 2026-11-11 16:22 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Battle-Scarred) gloves · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-battle-scarred) [OjczymLeny](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/OjczymLeny) $523 $250 0.48x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) Hidden $523 $394 0.75x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [★ Falchion Knife | Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) Hidden $523 $215 0.41x 2026-11-11 16:20 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $528 $121 0.23x 2026-11-10 09:54 UTC [★ Paracord Knife | Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-case-hardened-battle-scarred) [???????????????????????????? シ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%3F%20%E3%82%B7) $523 $107 0.21x 2026-11-10 09:53 UTC [AK-47 | Vulcan (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-vulcan-well-worn) Hidden $523 $170 0.32x 2026-11-10 09:53 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,835 (5.25x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.26 on average: an expected loss of $7.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt