---
title: "VICE case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "VICE ($236.57) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: advertised RTP 87.50% from 47 items with odds, observed 91.90% over 1,535 openings in 30 days."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:16Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [VICE](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · VICE

A case on Key-Drop (PREMIUM CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice?window=all)

Price · $236.57

Advertised RTP · 87.50% · EV $206.99 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d · 91.90% · 1,535 openings, odds method

Variance · 1.0× · of price², per opening

Tail share · 31.4% · of openings carry half the EV

Below price · 66.3% · of openings return less than the price

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% band advertised outside band small sample

24 hours · 91.25% ±13.17 226 openings

7 days · 94.71% ±5.82 1,218 openings

30 days · 91.90% ±5.15 1,535 openings

since tracking started · 91.90% ±5.15 1,535 openings

77.5% 91.3% 105.0%

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice?window=24h) | 226 | 91.25% ±13.2 | +0.5σ | odds |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice?window=7d) | 1,218 | 94.71% ±5.82 | +2.4σ | odds |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice) | 1,535 | 91.90% ±5.15 | +1.7σ | odds |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vice?window=all) | 1,535 | 91.90% ±5.15 | +1.7σ | odds |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,535 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [AWP \| Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) | 1 in 5,000 | $10.2K | 1.0% | 2 | 0.3 | — |
| [AWP \| The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) | 1 in 2,000 | $3,236 | 0.8% | 2 | 0.8 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 1,000 | $1,685 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.5 | 1.30× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-minimal-wear) | 1 in 10,000 | $1,478 | 0.1% | 0 | 0.2 | — |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) | 1 in 833 | $1,448 | 0.8% | 2 | 1.8 | 1.09× |
| [★ M9 Bayonet \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) | 1 in 667 | $1,169 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) | 1 in 667 | $1,143 | 0.8% | 3 | 2.3 | 1.30× |
| [★ Karambit \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-tiger-tooth-factory-new) | 1 in 667 | $1,109 | 0.8% | 1 | 2.3 | 0.43× |
| [AWP \| Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) | 1 in 19 | $609 | 15.8% | 78 | 82.3 | 0.95× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 44 | $441 | 4.9% | 37 | 35.2 | 1.05× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-field-tested) | 1 in 164 | $440 | 1.3% | 6 | 9.4 | 0.64× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-well-worn) | 1 in 87 | $439 | 2.4% | 14 | 17.7 | 0.79× |
| [★ Talon Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 86 | $437 | 2.4% | 13 | 17.8 | 0.73× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 41 | $418 | 4.9% | 33 | 37.0 | 0.89× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Factory New) weapon · legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-factory-new) | 1 in 455 | $393 | 0.4% | 2 | 3.4 | 0.59× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) | 1 in 39 | $392 | 4.9% | 50 | 39.4 | 1.27× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-well-worn) | 1 in 110 | $360 | 1.6% | 8 | 14.0 | 0.57× |
| [★ Sport Gloves \| Vice (Battle-Scarred) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-vice-battle-scarred) | 14.0% | $287 | 19.3% | 104 | 214.3 | 0.49× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-factory-new) | 1 in 42 | $266 | 3.0% | 16 | 36.2 | 0.44× |
| [★ Flip Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) | 1 in 26 | $229 | 4.3% | 96 | 59.7 | 1.61× |
| [M4A1-S \| Fade (Factory New) weapon · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 25 | $222 | 4.3% | 55 | 60.9 | 0.90× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-minimal-wear) | 1 in 54 | $214 | 1.9% | 17 | 28.2 | 0.60× |
| [★ Bayonet \| Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) | 1 in 43 | $180 | 2.0% | 27 | 35.9 | 0.75× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-minimal-wear) | 1 in 108 | $160 | 0.7% | 10 | 14.3 | 0.70× |
| [★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 22 | $157 | 3.5% | 75 | 69.8 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-factory-new) | 1 in 147 | $147 | 0.5% | 8 | 10.4 | 0.77× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) | 1 in 122 | $143 | 0.6% | 13 | 12.6 | 1.03× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-minimal-wear) | 1 in 149 | $126 | 0.4% | 14 | 10.3 | 1.36× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-minimal-wear) | 1 in 120 | $108 | 0.4% | 10 | 12.7 | 0.78× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-well-worn) | 1 in 68 | $94.24 | 0.7% | 14 | 22.4 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-well-worn) | 1 in 50 | $92.75 | 0.9% | 19 | 30.5 | 0.62× |
| [AK-47 \| B the Monster (Field-Tested) weapon · rare](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-b-the-monster-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $92.38 | 0.9% | 27 | 30.9 | 0.88× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Field-Tested) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-field-tested) | 1 in 62 | $87.93 | 0.7% | 13 | 24.7 | 0.53× |
| [★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Jade (Battle-Scarred) gloves · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-battle-scarred) | 1 in 60 | $85.84 | 0.7% | 15 | 25.5 | 0.59× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Factory New) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-factory-new) | 1 in 49 | $82.88 | 0.8% | 23 | 31.6 | 0.73× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) | 1 in 33 | $74.49 | 1.1% | 34 | 47.1 | 0.72× |
| [AK-47 \| Nightwish (Battle-Scarred) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-battle-scarred) | 1 in 33 | $74.47 | 1.1% | 26 | 47.1 | 0.55× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-field-tested) | 1 in 70 | $73.72 | 0.5% | 16 | 21.8 | 0.73× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $70.80 | 0.5% | 17 | 22.9 | 0.74× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-well-worn) | 1 in 58 | $64.31 | 0.5% | 20 | 26.4 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-minimal-wear) | 1 in 45 | $62.98 | 0.7% | 25 | 34.1 | 0.73× |
| [M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-golden-coil-battle-scarred) | 1 in 53 | $59.97 | 0.6% | 21 | 29.2 | 0.72× |
| [USP-S \| Serum (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-serum-minimal-wear) | 1 in 15 | $58.95 | 1.9% | 111 | 103.5 | 1.07× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-well-worn) | 1 in 46 | $54.24 | 0.6% | 24 | 33.3 | 0.72× |
| [AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) | 1 in 45 | $53.21 | 0.6% | 26 | 34.2 | 0.76× |
| [AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear) weapon · Ancient](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-chrome-cannon-minimal-wear) | 1 in 20 | $44.80 | 1.1% | 50 | 74.9 | 0.67× |
| [AWP \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-hyper-beast-field-tested) | 1 in 25 | $41.37 | 0.8% | 37 | 61.9 | 0.60× |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/vice`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) [HEADSHOT V NOGU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HEADSHOT%20V%20NOGU) $237 $10.2K 43.08x 2026-11-06 12:05 UTC

[AWP | Gungnir (Field-Tested) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-gungnir-field-tested) Hidden $237 $10.2K 43.08x 2026-11-05 21:38 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) [HEADSHOT V NOGU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HEADSHOT%20V%20NOGU) $237 $3,354 14.18x 2026-11-08 12:51 UTC

[AWP | The Prince (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-the-prince-factory-new) Hidden $237 $3,274 13.84x 2026-11-06 04:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $237 $1,688 7.14x 2026-11-09 17:47 UTC

[Glock-18 | Fade (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-fade-factory-new) Hidden $237 $1,685 7.12x 2026-11-11 01:12 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [HEADSHOT V NOGU](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/HEADSHOT%20V%20NOGU) $237 $1,470 6.21x 2026-11-09 11:38 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $237 $1,470 6.21x 2026-11-08 21:40 UTC

[★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 1) knife · covert · Phase 1](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-1) [Mopo](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Mopo) $237 $1,169 4.94x 2026-11-10 20:49 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $237 $1,167 4.93x 2026-11-03 17:53 UTC

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=vice)

[AK-47 | Nightwish weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $237 $74.48 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:10 UTC

[★ Broken Fang Gloves | Jade (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/broken-fang-gloves-jade-minimal-wear) Hidden $237 $143 0.60x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[AK-47 | Nightwish (Well-Worn) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-nightwish-well-worn) [CODE TOROCHO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/CODE%20TOROCHO) $237 $74.43 0.31x 2026-11-11 13:08 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $237 $157 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $237 $157 0.66x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $237 $392 1.66x 2026-11-11 12:49 UTC

[★ Paracord Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · epic](https://gambatracker.com/items/paracord-knife-fade-factory-new) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $237 $168 0.71x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[★ Talon Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-crimson-web-field-tested) Hidden $237 $434 1.84x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[AWP | Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-containment-breach-battle-scarred) Hidden $237 $49.30 0.21x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

[★ Bayonet | Bright Water (Field-Tested) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-bright-water-field-tested) Hidden $237 $185 0.78x 2026-11-11 12:45 UTC

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $237 | 87.50% | 47 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $237 | 87.86% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $237 | 87.32% | 47 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $237 | 87.52% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $237 | 87.56% | 47 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $237 | 87.64% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $237 | 87.55% | 47 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $237 | 87.51% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $237 | 87.71% | 47 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $237 | 87.53% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $237 | 87.42% | 47 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $237 | 87.45% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $237 | 87.63% | 47 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $237 | 87.45% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 16:37 UTC | $237 | 87.52% | 47 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $237 | 87.64% | 47 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $237 | 87.60% | 47 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed covert 45.0% restricted 0.1% extraordinary 19.4% legendary 0.2% epic 8.5% gold 4.0% Ancient 5.8% rare 2.0% red 8.2% classified 6.7% best hit $10.2K (43.08x)

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.50 on average: an expected loss of $12.50 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt