--- title: "VISION JOKER case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops" description: "VISION JOKER ($200.97) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 83.74% over 351 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker rendered: 2026-11-11T16:05Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [VISION JOKER](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker) # [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · VISION JOKER A case on Key-Drop, first seen 4 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker?window=all) Price · $200.97 Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 83.74% · 351 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 112 openings · below min 7 days · 298 openings · below min 30 days · 351 openings · below min since tracking started · 351 openings · below min 63.0% 100.5% 138.0% **Small sample.** 351 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker?window=24h) | 112 | 100.49% ±36.8 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker?window=7d) | 298 | 91.00% ±23.2 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker) | 351 | 83.74% ±19.8 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/vision-joker?window=all) | 351 | 83.74% ±19.8 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Key-Drop publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $200 $2,060 10.29x 2026-11-06 03:11 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $199 $2,038 10.25x 2026-11-05 03:12 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $199 $2,038 10.25x 2026-11-05 03:12 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $198 $2,038 10.28x 2026-11-10 18:54 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [TökY](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/T%C3%B6kY) $198 $2,038 10.28x 2026-11-10 14:26 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [triple](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/triple) $198 $2,038 10.28x 2026-11-09 07:35 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $198 $2,038 10.28x 2026-11-09 07:34 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $198 $2,038 10.28x 2026-11-09 07:34 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) [triple](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/triple) $198 $2,038 10.28x 2026-11-09 07:34 UTC [★ Bayonet | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $196 $2,003 10.24x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=vision-joker) [AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $198 $47.46 0.24x 2026-11-11 16:05 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $198 $87.51 0.44x 2026-11-11 16:00 UTC [AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-battle-scarred) [0nz](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/0nz) $194 $36.61 0.19x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [AWP | Lightning Strike (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-lightning-strike-factory-new) Hidden $194 $612 3.16x 2026-11-11 15:59 UTC [P250 | Asiimov weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $198 $18.60 0.09x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Tiger Tooth (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-tiger-tooth-factory-new) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $198 $87.51 0.44x 2026-11-11 15:11 UTC [P250 | Asiimov (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-asiimov-field-tested) [Death13](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Death13) $196 $14.58 0.07x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-royal-legion-field-tested) Hidden $196 $2.94 0.02x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [Galil AR | Chatterbox (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/galil-ar-chatterbox-well-worn) Hidden $196 $141 0.72x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Fade (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-fade-well-worn) Hidden $196 $182 0.93x 2026-11-11 15:09 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,060 (10.29x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 83.7% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $83.74 on average: an expected loss of $16.26 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt