---
title: "X case on Key-Drop: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker"
description: "X ($0.00) on Key-Drop, a CS2 case site: no published odds. Item values at the site’s own prices, biggest and latest drops. Independent and free, no sign-up."
url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x
rendered: 2026-11-11T13:19Z
---

[Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) / [X](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x)

# [Key-Drop](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/keydrop) · X

A case on Key-Drop (COMMUNITY CASES), first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Key-Drop's own item price.

[24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x?window=all)

Price · $0.00

Advertised RTP · —

Observed RTP, 30d · — · no counted openings

Variance · — · needs odds

Tail share · — · needs odds

Below price · — · needs odds

## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker

**No counted openings yet** Openings inside battles and free cases are listed but never counted.

## Windows · the test per window

| Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x?window=7d) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x) | 0 | — | — | — |
| [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/keydrop/x?window=all) | 0 | — | — | — |

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

## Items, odds and values · 18 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 0 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

| Item | Odds | Value | EV share | Observed | Expected | Hot / cold |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| [★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/survival-knife-marble-fade-factory-new) | 1 in 100,000 | $147 | 2.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested) weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-inheritance-field-tested) | 1 in 50,000 | $42.81 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Well-Worn) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-aquamarine-revenge-well-worn) | 1 in 50,000 | $38.98 | 1.1% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-ice-coaled-field-tested) | 1 in 10,000 | $8.79 | 1.3% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-party-animal-field-tested) | 1 in 20,000 | $8.40 | 0.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Deathgaze (Field-Tested) weapon · Legendary](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-deathgaze-field-tested) | 1 in 3,333 | $7.39 | 3.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-smoking-kills-battle-scarred) | 1 in 2,000 | $4.70 | 3.4% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Dual Berettas \| Twin Turbo (Well-Worn) weapon · pink](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-twin-turbo-well-worn) | 1 in 1,429 | $2.64 | 2.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [M4A1-S \| Solitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · #d32ce6](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-solitude-battle-scarred) | 1 in 769 | $1.39 | 2.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [USP-S \| Royal Guard (Field-Tested) weapon · uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-royal-guard-field-tested) | 1 in 500 | $0.57 | 1.7% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-block-18-field-tested) | 1 in 67 | $0.53 | 11.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Negev \| dev\_texture (Field-Tested) weapon · violet](https://gambatracker.com/items/negev-dev-texture-field-tested) | 1 in 50 | $0.45 | 13.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [P90 \| Reef Grief (Field-Tested) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-reef-grief-field-tested) | 1 in 17 | $0.20 | 17.5% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MAG-7 \| MAGnitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-battle-scarred) | 11.0% | $0.06 | 9.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-well-worn) | 11.0% | $0.05 | 8.0% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [MP9 \| Dizzy (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dizzy-field-tested) | 24.5% | $0.02 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [SCAR-20 \| Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) | 24.5% | $0.02 | 7.2% | 0 | 0.0 | — |
| [Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-banana-leaf-field-tested) | 19.0% | $0.02 | 5.6% | 0 | 0.0 | — |

Values are Key-Drop's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from `keydrop:skins/category/x`, 11 Nov, 08:44 UTC.

## Biggest drops · from this case, by value

**No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet.

## Latest drops · newest first

[All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=keydrop&case=x)

[MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-battle-scarred) [СМЦЗ](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%D0%A1%D0%9C%D0%A6%D0%97) $0 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:03 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-well-worn) [TONY-SOPRANO](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/TONY-SOPRANO) $0 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:03 UTC

[SSG 08 | Dezastre (Well-Worn) weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dezastre-well-worn) [Cat](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Cat) $0 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:03 UTC

[Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-banana-leaf-field-tested) [Kiba de primera primico](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kiba%20de%20primera%20primico) $0 $0.03 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:02 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) [dios](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/dios) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC

[MP9 | Dizzy (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dizzy-field-tested) [Kapones CS2.ME](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/Kapones%20CS2.ME) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC

[MAG-7 | MAGnitude (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-magnitude-battle-scarred) [| Alfa | NO MONEY FOR SKINS](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%7C%20Alfa%20%7C%20NO%20MONEY%20FOR%20SKINS) $0 $0.06 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC

[SCAR-20 | Zinc (Field-Tested) weapon · gray](https://gambatracker.com/items/scar-20-zinc-field-tested) [chaswa](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/chaswa) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 22:00 UTC

[MP9 | Dizzy (Field-Tested) weapon · #b0c3d9](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-dizzy-field-tested) [乃agSe????](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%E4%B9%83agSe%3F%3F%3F%3F) $0 $0.02 0.00x 2026-11-04 21:58 UTC

[Tec-9 | Banana Leaf (Field-Tested) weapon · light blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/tec-9-banana-leaf-field-tested) [ɥ!ƃ!ƃ!ƃ!ƃ!ƃ!ƃ!ƃ!ƃ!ƃ!](https://gambatracker.com/players/keydrop/%C9%A5!%C6%83!%C6%83!%C6%83!%C6%83!%C6%83!%C6%83!%C6%83!%C6%83!%C6%83!) $0 $0.03 0.00x 2026-11-04 21:58 UTC

## Observed RTP over time · daily, 30 days

No history yet

## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 10 Nov, 20:35 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 10 Nov, 14:31 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 20:17 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 9 Nov, 14:13 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 17:45 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 8 Nov, 11:41 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 17:27 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 7 Nov, 11:22 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 17:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 6 Nov, 11:04 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 16:50 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 5 Nov, 10:46 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 16:30 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 15:54 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 3 Nov, 09:08 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |
| 2 Nov, 21:39 UTC | $0 | — | 18 |

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed gold 0.0% red 0.0% covert 0.0% pink 0.1% classified 0.0% Legendary 0.0% uncommon 0.3% #d32ce6 0.1% violet 3.5% blue 17.0% Mil Spec Grade 11.0% #b0c3d9 24.5% gray 24.5% light blue 19.0%

18+

**Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** Every case pays out less than it costs on average; the rare items carry most of the advertised value and most openings return a fraction of the price. A big drop here says nothing about the next one.

[BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling)

How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt