--- title: "10% Knife case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "10% Knife ($16.97) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 91.42% over 20.1K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife rendered: 2026-11-11T19:59Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [10% Knife](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · 10% Knife A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife?window=all) Price · $16.97 · 24.24 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 91.42% · 20.1K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.22% ±12.89 1,734 openings 7 days · 90.02% ±5.48 15.1K openings 30 days · 91.42% ±4.74 20.1K openings since tracking started · 91.42% ±4.74 20.1K openings 71.5% 85.3% 99.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife?window=24h) | 1,734 | 85.22% ±12.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife?window=7d) | 15.1K | 90.02% ±5.48 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife) | 20.1K | 91.42% ±4.74 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/10-knife?window=all) | 20.1K | 91.42% ±4.74 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [Foxo16 GetFreeKnife.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Foxo16%20%20GetFreeKnife.com) $16.97 24.24 coins $1,893 2,704 coins 111.6x 2026-11-09 00:20 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $1,893 2,704 coins 111.6x 2026-11-05 13:24 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-minimal-wear) [Lumen](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Lumen) $16.97 24.24 coins $1,893 2,704 coins 111.6x 2026-11-05 05:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Karambit | Fade (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-karambit-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $1,893 2,704 coins 111.6x 2026-11-04 16:52 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $882 1,261 coins 52.00x 2026-11-09 05:44 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Doppler (Factory New) knife · sunny](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $882 1,261 coins 52.00x 2026-11-08 13:02 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $639 913 coins 37.65x 2026-11-07 06:33 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Well-Worn) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-lore-well-worn) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $639 913 coins 37.65x 2026-11-06 21:03 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $569 813 coins 33.56x 2026-11-10 13:17 UTC [★ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/talon-knife-slaughter-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $569 813 coins 33.56x 2026-11-09 16:01 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=10-knife) [★ Falchion Knife | Freehand (Factory New) knife · gold](https://gambatracker.com/items/falchion-knife-freehand-factory-new) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $150 214 coins 8.84x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [★ Shadow Daggers | Stained (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/shadow-daggers-stained-minimal-wear) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $83.30 119 coins 4.91x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC [Sticker | Knife Club sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-knife-club) Hidden $16.97 24.24 coins $0.69 0.98 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 19:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,893 (111.6x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 91.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $91.42 on average: an expected loss of $8.58 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt