--- title: "5% Dream case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Dream ($6.41) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 90.90% over 48.6K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream rendered: 2026-11-11T13:39Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [5% Dream](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · 5% Dream A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream?window=all) Price · $6.41 · 9.15 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 90.90% · 48.6K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 82.07% ±10.68 6,024 openings 7 days · 89.84% ±7.39 40.6K openings 30 days · 90.90% ±7.09 48.6K openings since tracking started · 90.90% ±7.09 48.6K openings 70.5% 84.5% 98.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream?window=24h) | 6,024 | 82.07% ±10.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream?window=7d) | 40.6K | 89.84% ±7.39 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream) | 48.6K | 90.90% ±7.09 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-dream?window=all) | 48.6K | 90.90% ±7.09 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins $4,251 6,073 coins 663.7x 2026-11-09 04:26 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins $4,251 6,073 coins 663.7x 2026-11-08 01:39 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) [Fruito](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Fruito) $6.41 9.15 coins $4,251 6,073 coins 663.7x 2026-11-05 01:19 UTC [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins $4,251 6,073 coins 663.7x 2026-11-03 20:55 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins $1,853 2,647 coins 289.3x 2026-11-08 06:25 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins $1,853 2,647 coins 289.3x 2026-11-06 12:26 UTC [★ Karambit | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-lore-factory-new) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins $1,853 2,647 coins 289.3x 2026-11-04 10:32 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins $832 1,188 coins 129.9x 2026-11-09 23:05 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) [Aashish01](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Aashish01) $6.41 9.15 coins $832 1,188 coins 129.9x 2026-11-09 02:36 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Slaughter (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Immortal](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-slaughter-factory-new) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins $832 1,188 coins 129.9x 2026-11-07 17:24 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=5-dream) [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) [Wtsb-9f905c](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Wtsb-9f905c) $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:38 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC [Nova | Sand Dune (Minimal Wear) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-sand-dune-minimal-wear) Hidden $6.41 9.15 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $4,251 (663.7x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 90.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $90.90 on average: an expected loss of $9.10 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt