--- title: "5% Faded case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Faded ($5.09) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.92% over 39.7K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded rendered: 2026-11-11T19:09Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [5% Faded](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · 5% Faded A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded?window=all) Price · $5.09 · 7.27 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.92% · 39.7K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 74.37% ±14.46 4,205 openings 7 days · 85.26% ±5.81 31K openings 30 days · 86.92% ±5.20 39.7K openings since tracking started · 86.92% ±5.20 39.7K openings 59.5% 76.3% 93.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded?window=24h) | 4,205 | 74.37% ±14.5 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded?window=7d) | 31K | 85.26% ±5.81 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded) | 39.7K | 86.92% ±5.20 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-faded?window=all) | 39.7K | 86.92% ±5.20 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $809 1,156 coins 159.0x 2026-11-09 10:21 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) [pauliuspask159](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/pauliuspask159) $5.09 7.27 coins $809 1,156 coins 159.0x 2026-11-07 10:47 UTC [★ Stiletto Knife | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stiletto-knife-fade-factory-new) [Zipfel\_Klatscher](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Zipfel_Klatscher) $5.09 7.27 coins $809 1,156 coins 159.0x 2026-11-05 23:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $709 1,013 coins 139.4x 2026-11-11 10:41 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $709 1,013 coins 139.4x 2026-11-08 01:50 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $709 1,013 coins 139.4x 2026-11-06 21:24 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $709 1,013 coins 139.4x 2026-11-06 15:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Fade (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-fade-factory-new) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $709 1,013 coins 139.4x 2026-11-05 00:55 UTC [UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $526 752 coins 103.4x 2026-11-10 23:19 UTC [UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear) weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $526 752 coins 103.4x 2026-11-10 13:44 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=5-faded) [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) [proske13](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/proske13) $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) [proske13](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/proske13) $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:05 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC [Sticker | Fade Lethal sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-fade-lethal) Hidden $5.09 7.27 coins $0.57 0.82 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 19:04 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $809 (159.0x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.92 on average: an expected loss of $13.08 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt