--- title: "5% Lore case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "5% Lore ($4.38) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 93.49% over 127K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore rendered: 2026-11-11T12:48Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [5% Lore](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · 5% Lore A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore?window=all) Price · $4.38 · 6.25 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 93.49% · 127K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.14% ±13.74 11.1K openings 7 days · 92.18% ±5.57 94.2K openings 30 days · 93.49% ±4.82 127K openings since tracking started · 93.49% ±4.82 127K openings 70.5% 85.0% 99.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore?window=24h) | 11.1K | 85.14% ±13.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore?window=7d) | 94.2K | 92.18% ±5.57 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore) | 127K | 93.49% ±4.82 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/5-lore?window=all) | 127K | 93.49% ±4.82 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Dragon Lore (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-dragon-lore-battle-scarred) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $3,891 5,559 coins 889.4x 2026-11-06 09:55 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $1,591 2,273 coins 363.7x 2026-11-10 12:17 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $1,591 2,273 coins 363.7x 2026-11-10 11:35 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $1,591 2,273 coins 363.7x 2026-11-10 11:25 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $1,591 2,273 coins 363.7x 2026-11-09 15:14 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [Holo-.-](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Holo-.-) $4.38 6.25 coins $1,591 2,273 coins 363.7x 2026-11-09 05:48 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $1,591 2,273 coins 363.7x 2026-11-09 00:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [Holo-.-](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Holo-.-) $4.38 6.25 coins $1,591 2,273 coins 363.7x 2026-11-08 21:34 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) [Dimitri](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Dimitri) $4.38 6.25 coins $1,591 2,273 coins 363.7x 2026-11-08 16:02 UTC [★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet | Lore (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m9-bayonet-lore-minimal-wear) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $1,591 2,273 coins 363.7x 2026-11-06 19:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=5-lore) [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) [Slyckety](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Slyckety) $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:38 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC [Sticker | Baby Lore sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-baby-lore) Hidden $4.38 6.25 coins $0.26 0.37 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 12:37 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $3,891 (889.4x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 93.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $93.49 on average: an expected loss of $6.51 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt