--- title: "Alchemy case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Alchemy ($4.70) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.44% over 7,201 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy rendered: 2026-11-11T14:51Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Alchemy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Alchemy A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy?window=all) Price · $4.70 · 6.71 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.44% · 7,201 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 627 openings · below min 7 days · 83.48% ±9.62 5,670 openings 30 days · 86.44% ±9.22 7,201 openings since tracking started · 86.44% ±9.22 7,201 openings 61.5% 94.0% 126.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy?window=24h) | 627 | 93.99% ±31.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy?window=7d) | 5,670 | 83.48% ±9.62 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy) | 7,201 | 86.44% ±9.22 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/alchemy?window=all) | 7,201 | 86.44% ±9.22 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $411 588 coins 87.58x 2026-11-10 06:17 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $411 588 coins 87.58x 2026-11-09 17:14 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $411 588 coins 87.58x 2026-11-06 19:32 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $411 588 coins 87.58x 2026-11-03 15:29 UTC [★ Bayonet | Lore (Field-Tested) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-lore-field-tested) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $411 588 coins 87.58x 2026-11-02 23:44 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $262 374 coins 55.68x 2026-11-11 10:04 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $262 374 coins 55.68x 2026-11-09 10:50 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $262 374 coins 55.68x 2026-11-08 21:19 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) [D Piddy](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/D%20Piddy) $4.70 6.71 coins $262 374 coins 55.68x 2026-11-03 20:31 UTC [★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/huntsman-knife-lore-factory-new) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $262 374 coins 55.68x 2026-11-03 19:11 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=alchemy) [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) [Lennox77](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Lennox77) $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:38 UTC [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) Hidden $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC [Sticker | ANNIHILATION (Gold) | Paris 2023 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-annihilation-gold-paris-2023) [OHNEEHRE](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/OHNEEHRE) $4.70 6.71 coins $0.71 1.01 coins 0.15x 2026-11-11 14:33 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $411 (87.58x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.4% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.44 on average: an expected loss of $13.56 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt