--- title: "Arctic case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Arctic ($14.99) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.95% over 1,462 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic rendered: 2026-11-12T04:14Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Arctic](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Arctic A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic?window=all) Price · $14.99 · 21.42 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.95% · 1,462 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 173 openings · below min 7 days · 995 openings · below min 30 days · 88.95% ±11.07 1,462 openings since tracking started · 88.95% ±11.07 1,462 openings 54.5% 83.3% 112.0% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic?window=24h) | 173 | 83.07% ±28.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic?window=7d) | 995 | 81.21% ±11.0 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic) | 1,462 | 88.95% ±11.1 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/arctic?window=all) | 1,462 | 88.95% ±11.1 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=arctic) [P90 | Glacier Mesh (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/p90-glacier-mesh-factory-new) Hidden $14.99 21.42 coins $23.31 33.3 coins 1.55x 2026-11-12 03:42 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $14.99 21.42 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-12 03:42 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $14.99 21.42 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-12 03:42 UTC [StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-aug-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $14.99 21.42 coins $15.08 21.54 coins 1.01x 2026-11-12 03:42 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $14.99 21.42 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-12 03:42 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-frontside-misty-minimal-wear) [Matteølxrd](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Matte%C3%B8lxrd) $14.99 21.42 coins $52.11 74.44 coins 3.48x 2026-11-12 03:42 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $14.99 21.42 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-12 01:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $14.99 21.42 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-12 01:34 UTC [UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/ump-45-arctic-wolf-factory-new) Hidden $14.99 21.42 coins $1.03 1.47 coins 0.07x 2026-11-12 01:34 UTC [G3SG1 | Arctic Camo (Factory New) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/g3sg1-arctic-camo-factory-new) Hidden $14.99 21.42 coins $80.77 115 coins 5.39x 2026-11-12 01:34 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.95 on average: an expected loss of $11.05 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt