--- title: "Based case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Based ($81.76) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 88.46% over 436 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based rendered: 2026-11-11T21:20Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Based](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Based A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based?window=all) Price · $81.76 · 117 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 88.46% · 436 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 40 openings · below min 7 days · 339 openings · below min 30 days · 436 openings · below min since tracking started · 436 openings · below min 51.0% 96.5% 142.0% **Small sample.** 436 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based?window=24h) | 40 | 96.51% ±44.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based?window=7d) | 339 | 92.15% ±11.8 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based) | 436 | 88.46% ±10.5 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/based?window=all) | 436 | 88.46% ±10.5 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Bayonet | Autotronic (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bayonet-autotronic-factory-new) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $853 1,219 coins 10.44x 2026-11-04 21:56 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-katowice-2014) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $674 963 coins 8.24x 2026-11-11 00:19 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-katowice-2014) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $674 963 coins 8.24x 2026-11-08 16:57 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-katowice-2014) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $674 963 coins 8.24x 2026-11-05 09:48 UTC [Sticker | LGB eSports | Katowice 2014 sticker · high](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-lgb-esports-katowice-2014) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $674 963 coins 8.24x 2026-11-04 23:28 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=based) [USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $86.03 123 coins 1.05x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $86.03 123 coins 1.05x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $2.87 4.1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $2.87 4.1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [AWP | Silk Tiger (Factory New) weapon · #d32ee6](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-silk-tiger-factory-new) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $250 357 coins 3.06x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [USP-S | Orange Anolis (Factory New) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/usp-s-orange-anolis-factory-new) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $86.03 123 coins 1.05x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $2.87 4.1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) [KOMIN](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/KOMIN) $81.76 117 coins $2.87 4.1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 18:06 UTC [Glock-18 | Sand Dune (Well-Worn) weapon · industrial](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-sand-dune-well-worn) Hidden $81.76 117 coins $2.87 4.1 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 03:07 UTC [Souvenir MAG-7 | Bulldozer (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-mag-7-bulldozer-minimal-wear) [e5k1m00](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/e5k1m00) $81.76 117 coins $44.74 63.92 coins 0.55x 2026-11-11 03:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $853 (10.44x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 88.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $88.46 on average: an expected loss of $11.54 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt