--- title: "Birthday case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Birthday ($0.70) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.19% over 119K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday rendered: 2026-11-11T13:38Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Birthday](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Birthday A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday?window=all) Price · $0.70 · 1 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.19% · 119K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 106.27% ±26.56 22.4K openings 7 days · 83.61% ±10.94 97.5K openings 30 days · 84.19% ±9.82 119K openings since tracking started · 84.19% ±9.82 119K openings 72.0% 102.7% 133.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday?window=24h) | 22.4K | 106.27% ±26.6 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday?window=7d) | 97.5K | 83.61% ±10.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday) | 119K | 84.19% ±9.82 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/birthday?window=all) | 119K | 84.19% ±9.82 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $701 1,002 coins 1,002x 2026-11-09 22:40 UTC [★ Bayonet | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 4) knife · covert · Phase 4](https://gambatracker.com/items/bayonet-doppler-factory-new-phase-4) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $701 1,002 coins 1,002x 2026-11-09 19:16 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $621 888 coins 887.7x 2026-11-11 11:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $621 888 coins 887.7x 2026-11-11 07:47 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $621 888 coins 887.7x 2026-11-10 01:54 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) [Licht Bach](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Licht%20Bach) $0.70 1 coins $621 888 coins 887.7x 2026-11-08 17:09 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $621 888 coins 887.7x 2026-11-07 23:17 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $621 888 coins 887.7x 2026-11-07 14:49 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $621 888 coins 887.7x 2026-11-04 02:00 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Bowie Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) StatTrak · knife · Covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-bowie-knife-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $0.70 1 coins $621 888 coins 887.7x 2026-11-03 00:13 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=birthday) [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) [Butftingerer](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Butftingerer) $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:23 UTC [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC [Sticker | rain | Paris 2023 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-rain-paris-2023) Hidden $0.70 1 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 13:22 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $701 (1,002x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 84.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.19 on average: an expected loss of $15.81 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt