--- title: "Blacksmith case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Blacksmith ($91.11) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 84.97% over 509 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith rendered: 2026-11-13T00:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Blacksmith](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Blacksmith A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith?window=all) Price · $91.11 · 130 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 84.97% · 509 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 7 days · 331 openings · below min 30 days · 509 openings · below min since tracking started · 509 openings · below min 69.0% 84.3% 99.5% **Small sample.** 509 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith?window=24h) | 0 | — | — | — | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith?window=7d) | 331 | 84.37% ±14.7 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith) | 509 | 84.97% ±11.0 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/blacksmith?window=all) | 509 | 84.97% ±11.0 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Butterfly Knife | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $1,299 1,856 coins 14.26x 2026-11-08 15:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $622 888 coins 6.83x 2026-11-12 00:10 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Blue Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-blue-steel-factory-new) [Meluhdy](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Meluhdy) $91.11 130 coins $622 888 coins 6.83x 2026-11-10 17:22 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Talon Knife | Damascus Steel (Factory New) StatTrak · knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-talon-knife-damascus-steel-factory-new) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $567 809 coins 6.22x 2026-11-11 11:58 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=blacksmith) [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $90.72 130 coins 1.00x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $90.72 130 coins 1.00x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $90.72 130 coins 1.00x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $7.85 11.21 coins 0.09x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $7.85 11.21 coins 0.09x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) [Fixedinho](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Fixedinho) $91.11 130 coins $7.85 11.21 coins 0.09x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $7.85 11.21 coins 0.09x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers | Blue Steel (Well-Worn) StatTrak · knife · covert knife](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-shadow-daggers-blue-steel-well-worn) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $90.72 130 coins 1.00x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $7.85 11.21 coins 0.09x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC [Souvenir SG 553 | Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear) Souvenir · weapon · Mil Spec Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-sg-553-damascus-steel-minimal-wear) Hidden $91.11 130 coins $7.85 11.21 coins 0.09x 2026-11-12 00:11 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,299 (14.26x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $84.97 on average: an expected loss of $15.03 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt