--- title: "Bonfire case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bonfire ($3.10) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 85.26% over 7,593 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire rendered: 2026-11-11T23:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Bonfire](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Bonfire A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire?window=all) Price · $3.10 · 4.43 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 85.26% · 7,593 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 835 openings · below min 7 days · 86.56% ±6.74 6,088 openings 30 days · 85.26% ±5.95 7,593 openings since tracking started · 85.26% ±5.95 7,593 openings 64.5% 82.5% 100.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire?window=24h) | 835 | 82.38% ±17.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire?window=7d) | 6,088 | 86.56% ±6.74 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire) | 7,593 | 85.26% ±5.95 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonfire?window=all) | 7,593 | 85.26% ±5.95 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value **No drops yet** No drop from this case seen yet. ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=bonfire) [Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.10 4.43 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 23:39 UTC [Dual Berettas | Drift Wood (Field-Tested) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/dual-berettas-drift-wood-field-tested) Hidden $3.10 4.43 coins $5.64 8.05 coins 1.82x 2026-11-11 23:39 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Factory New) weapon · mil spec](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-factory-new) Hidden $3.10 4.43 coins $0.94 1.35 coins 0.30x 2026-11-11 23:39 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.10 4.43 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 23:39 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) Hidden $3.10 4.43 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 23:39 UTC [Nova | Wood Fired (Battle-Scarred) weapon · blue](https://gambatracker.com/items/nova-wood-fired-battle-scarred) [Le Guig's](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Le%20Guig's) $3.10 4.43 coins $0.49 0.7 coins 0.16x 2026-11-11 23:39 UTC [AUG | Spalted Wood (Factory New) weapon · Uncommon](https://gambatracker.com/items/aug-spalted-wood-factory-new) Hidden $3.10 4.43 coins $10.71 15.3 coins 3.45x 2026-11-11 23:38 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Spalted Wood (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-spalted-wood-factory-new) Hidden $3.10 4.43 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:38 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Spalted Wood (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-spalted-wood-factory-new) Hidden $3.10 4.43 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:38 UTC [Souvenir AUG | Spalted Wood (Factory New) Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/souvenir-aug-spalted-wood-factory-new) Hidden $3.10 4.43 coins $0.13 0.18 coins 0.04x 2026-11-11 23:38 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit — 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 85.3% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $85.26 on average: an expected loss of $14.74 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt