--- title: "BonkIsSwag case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "BonkIsSwag ($18.14) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 89.78% over 17.2K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag rendered: 2026-11-11T23:13Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [BonkIsSwag](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · BonkIsSwag A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag?window=all) Price · $18.14 · 25.91 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 89.78% · 17.2K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 100.16% ±18.88 2,145 openings 7 days · 90.41% ±6.59 13.9K openings 30 days · 89.78% ±6.02 17.2K openings since tracking started · 89.78% ±6.02 17.2K openings 80.5% 100.0% 119.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag?window=24h) | 2,145 | 100.16% ±18.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag?window=7d) | 13.9K | 90.41% ±6.59 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag) | 17.2K | 89.78% ±6.02 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonkisswag?window=all) | 17.2K | 89.78% ±6.02 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) [Mr.Köster](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Mr.K%C3%B6ster) $18.14 25.91 coins $1,681 2,401 coins 92.67x 2026-11-11 03:34 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) [flor-cf4d03](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/flor-cf4d03) $18.14 25.91 coins $1,681 2,401 coins 92.67x 2026-11-10 14:38 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $1,681 2,401 coins 92.67x 2026-11-10 07:44 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $1,681 2,401 coins 92.67x 2026-11-07 10:17 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $1,681 2,401 coins 92.67x 2026-11-04 20:59 UTC [AWP | Medusa (Battle-Scarred) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-medusa-battle-scarred) [DonJuanDelanooch](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/DonJuanDelanooch) $18.14 25.91 coins $1,681 2,401 coins 92.67x 2026-11-04 18:54 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) [AJC](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/AJC) $18.14 25.91 coins $590 842 coins 32.52x 2026-11-11 23:01 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $590 842 coins 32.52x 2026-11-11 22:53 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $590 842 coins 32.52x 2026-11-11 21:16 UTC [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $590 842 coins 32.52x 2026-11-11 19:37 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=bonkisswag) [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $0.22 0.31 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $0.22 0.31 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $0.22 0.31 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-minimal-wear) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $96.18 137 coins 5.30x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-field-tested) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $0.22 0.31 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MP9 | Stained Glass (Minimal Wear) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-stained-glass-minimal-wear) [No, don't touch me there](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/No%2C%20don't%20touch%20me%20there) $18.14 25.91 coins $96.18 137 coins 5.30x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Amphibious (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-amphibious-well-worn) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $544 777 coins 29.99x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC [MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/mag-7-swag-7-factory-new) Hidden $18.14 25.91 coins $1.01 1.44 coins 0.06x 2026-11-11 23:10 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,681 (92.67x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 89.8% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $89.78 on average: an expected loss of $10.22 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt