--- title: "Bonsai case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bonsai ($1,912.39) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 66.63% over 12 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai rendered: 2026-11-11T13:27Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Bonsai](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Bonsai A case on Rain.gg, first seen 6 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai?window=all) Price · $1,912.39 · 2,732 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 66.63% · 12 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 6 openings · below min 7 days · 12 openings · below min 30 days · 12 openings · below min since tracking started · 12 openings · below min 28.5% 88.0% 147.5% **Small sample.** 12 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai?window=24h) | 6 | 92.75% ±54.2 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai?window=7d) | 12 | 66.63% ±37.4 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai) | 12 | 66.63% ±37.4 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bonsai?window=all) | 12 | 66.63% ±37.4 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $3,724 5,320 coins 1.95x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $3,021 4,316 coins 1.58x 2026-11-06 16:45 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [TEEBEECS](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/TEEBEECS) $1,912 2,732 coins $2,361 3,372 coins 1.23x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $1,939 2,770 coins 1.01x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $1,939 2,770 coins 1.01x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $631 901 coins 0.33x 2026-11-06 16:45 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $534 763 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=bonsai) [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $1,939 2,770 coins 1.01x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [★ Specialist Gloves | Emerald Web (Minimal Wear) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/specialist-gloves-emerald-web-minimal-wear) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $3,724 5,320 coins 1.95x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $146 209 coins 0.08x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [Desert Eagle | Emerald Jörmungandr (Field-Tested) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/desert-eagle-emerald-jormungandr-field-tested) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $534 763 coins 0.28x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [AK-47 | Hydroponic (Field-Tested) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/ak-47-hydroponic-field-tested) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $1,939 2,770 coins 1.01x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [★ Flip Knife | Gamma Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Emerald) knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/flip-knife-gamma-doppler-minimal-wear-emerald) [TEEBEECS](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/TEEBEECS) $1,912 2,732 coins $2,361 3,372 coins 1.23x 2026-11-10 19:16 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2) StatTrak · knife · covert · Phase 2](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-huntsman-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-2) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $351 502 coins 0.18x 2026-11-06 16:45 UTC [★ Butterfly Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 3) knife · covert · Phase 3](https://gambatracker.com/items/butterfly-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-phase-3) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $3,021 4,316 coins 1.58x 2026-11-06 16:45 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Gut Knife | Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Emerald) StatTrak · knife · covert · Emerald](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-gut-knife-gamma-doppler-factory-new-emerald) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $631 901 coins 0.33x 2026-11-06 16:45 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-containment-breach-well-worn) Hidden $1,912 2,732 coins $146 209 coins 0.08x 2026-11-06 16:45 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $3,724 (1.95x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 66.6% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $66.63 on average: an expected loss of $33.37 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt