--- title: "Bruised case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Bruised ($133.29) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 72.20% over 466 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised rendered: 2026-11-12T03:24Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Bruised](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Bruised A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised?window=all) Price · $133.29 · 190 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 72.20% · 466 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 35 openings · below min 7 days · 369 openings · below min 30 days · 466 openings · below min since tracking started · 466 openings · below min 36.5% 72.5% 108.5% **Small sample.** 466 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised?window=24h) | 35 | 72.60% ±35.4 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised?window=7d) | 369 | 73.89% ±11.3 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised) | 466 | 72.20% ±9.18 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/bruised?window=all) | 466 | 72.20% ±9.18 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [MP9 | Wild Lily (Minimal Wear) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp9-wild-lily-minimal-wear) Hidden $133 190 coins $1,987 2,838 coins 14.91x 2026-11-07 00:39 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $133 190 coins $834 1,191 coins 6.26x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) [Kim](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Kim) $133 190 coins $834 1,191 coins 6.26x 2026-11-10 23:49 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) [twitch.tv/MrBarnee](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/twitch.tv%2FMrBarnee) $133 190 coins $834 1,191 coins 6.26x 2026-11-10 20:54 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) Hidden $133 190 coins $834 1,191 coins 6.26x 2026-11-10 20:52 UTC [StatTrak™ AWP | Lightning Strike (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-awp-lightning-strike-minimal-wear) [HitTheTargetCS](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/HitTheTargetCS) $133 190 coins $834 1,191 coins 6.26x 2026-11-05 19:30 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=bruised) [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $133 190 coins $77.12 110 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) Hidden $133 190 coins $47.80 68.28 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-factory-new) [swerve](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/swerve) $133 190 coins $101 144 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 20:25 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $133 190 coins $101 144 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) Hidden $133 190 coins $0.29 0.41 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) [swerve](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/swerve) $133 190 coins $47.80 68.28 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 20:24 UTC [Glock-18 | Moonrise (Battle-Scarred) weapon · Restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/glock-18-moonrise-battle-scarred) Hidden $133 190 coins $0.29 0.41 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-m4a1-s-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $133 190 coins $77.12 110 coins 0.58x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [CZ75-Auto | The Fuschia Is Now (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/cz75-auto-the-fuschia-is-now-factory-new) [swerve](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/swerve) $133 190 coins $47.80 68.28 coins 0.36x 2026-11-11 20:23 UTC [StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Decimator (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-tec-9-decimator-factory-new) Hidden $133 190 coins $101 144 coins 0.76x 2026-11-11 16:07 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,987 (14.91x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 72.2% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $72.20 on average: an expected loss of $27.80 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt