--- title: "Cake case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cake ($190.69) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 86.53% over 449 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake rendered: 2026-11-13T03:54Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Cake](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Cake A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake?window=all) Price · $190.69 · 272 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 86.53% · 449 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 38 openings · below min 7 days · 270 openings · below min 30 days · 449 openings · below min since tracking started · 449 openings · below min 15.0% 101.8% 188.5% **Small sample.** 449 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake?window=24h) | 38 | 101.71% ±86.1 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake?window=7d) | 270 | 93.43% ±24.9 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake) | 449 | 86.53% ±17.7 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cake?window=all) | 449 | 86.53% ±17.7 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) Hidden $191 272 coins $2,835 4,051 coins 14.87x 2026-11-13 00:23 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) [Sodiums](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Sodiums) $191 272 coins $2,835 4,051 coins 14.87x 2026-11-08 23:54 UTC [AWP | Desert Hydra (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-desert-hydra-factory-new) Hidden $191 272 coins $2,245 3,207 coins 11.77x 2026-11-11 10:03 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $191 272 coins $1,648 2,354 coins 8.64x 2026-11-08 06:44 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $191 272 coins $1,648 2,354 coins 8.64x 2026-11-04 23:51 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Minimal Wear) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-minimal-wear) Hidden $191 272 coins $1,648 2,354 coins 8.64x 2026-11-04 13:47 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $191 272 coins $1,367 1,953 coins 7.17x 2026-11-12 18:31 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) [FybZ](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/FybZ) $191 272 coins $1,367 1,953 coins 7.17x 2026-11-11 14:45 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $191 272 coins $1,367 1,953 coins 7.17x 2026-11-10 01:58 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Fire Serpent (Well-Worn) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-fire-serpent-well-worn) Hidden $191 272 coins $1,367 1,953 coins 7.17x 2026-11-07 20:33 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=cake) [M4A1-S | Blue Phosphor (Factory New) weapon · classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/m4a1-s-blue-phosphor-factory-new) Hidden $191 272 coins $562 803 coins 2.95x 2026-11-13 00:26 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) Hidden $191 272 coins $38.04 54.34 coins 0.20x 2026-11-13 00:26 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $191 272 coins $12.07 17.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-13 00:26 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Kukri Knife | Case Hardened (Field-Tested) StatTrak · knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-kukri-knife-case-hardened-field-tested) Hidden $191 272 coins $246 352 coins 1.29x 2026-11-13 00:26 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $191 272 coins $12.07 17.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-13 00:26 UTC [StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear) StatTrak · weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-ak-47-neon-revolution-minimal-wear) [Kick/TheGodMode](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Kick%2FTheGodMode) $191 272 coins $67.82 96.88 coins 0.36x 2026-11-13 00:26 UTC [★ Sport Gloves | Hedge Maze (Well-Worn) gloves · extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sport-gloves-hedge-maze-well-worn) Hidden $191 272 coins $2,835 4,051 coins 14.87x 2026-11-13 00:23 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $191 272 coins $12.07 17.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-13 00:23 UTC [SSG 08 | Dragonfire (Minimal Wear) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/ssg-08-dragonfire-minimal-wear) Hidden $191 272 coins $12.07 17.24 coins 0.06x 2026-11-13 00:23 UTC [StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Cardiac (Factory New) StatTrak · weapon · Classified](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-scar-20-cardiac-factory-new) Hidden $191 272 coins $38.04 54.34 coins 0.20x 2026-11-13 00:23 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $2,835 (14.87x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 86.5% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $86.53 on average: an expected loss of $13.47 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt