--- title: "Charisma case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Charisma ($282.79) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 87.02% over 297 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma rendered: 2026-11-12T09:55Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Charisma](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Charisma A case on Rain.gg, first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma?window=all) Price · $282.79 · 404 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 87.02% · 297 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 26 openings · below min 7 days · 188 openings · below min 30 days · 297 openings · below min since tracking started · 297 openings · below min 18.0% 84.7% 151.5% **Small sample.** 297 openings: below the 1,000 the sample method needs, so no verdict. ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma?window=24h) | 26 | 84.75% ±66.3 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma?window=7d) | 188 | 89.02% ±24.6 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma) | 297 | 87.02% ±19.2 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/charisma?window=all) | 297 | 87.02% ±19.2 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) [ALYNNUSH](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/ALYNNUSH) $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-11 17:37 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-09 19:21 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-09 17:16 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-09 10:04 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-08 19:07 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-08 19:06 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-08 16:18 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-07 21:05 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-06 10:51 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Fade (Factory New) knife · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,667 2,382 coins 5.90x 2026-11-05 06:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=charisma) [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $283 404 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $283 404 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $283 404 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC [AWP | Fade (Factory New) weapon · covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/awp-fade-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,011 1,445 coins 3.58x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $283 404 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC [★ Karambit | Doppler (Factory New) knife · Covert](https://gambatracker.com/items/karambit-doppler-factory-new) Hidden $283 404 coins $1,167 1,667 coins 4.13x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC [MP7 | Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/mp7-forest-ddpat-field-tested) Hidden $283 404 coins \<$0.01 0.01 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $283 404 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $283 404 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC [P250 | Boreal Forest (Field-Tested) weapon · consumer](https://gambatracker.com/items/p250-boreal-forest-field-tested) Hidden $283 404 coins $0.01 0.02 coins 0.00x 2026-11-12 05:24 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $1,667 (5.90x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 87.0% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $87.02 on average: an expected loss of $12.98 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt