--- title: "Checkmate case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Checkmate ($121.81) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 92.89% over 17.1K openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate rendered: 2026-11-11T13:04Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Checkmate](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Checkmate A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate?window=all) Price · $121.81 · 174 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 92.89% · 17.1K openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 85.96% ±17.93 2,199 openings 7 days · 95.13% ±7.79 13.8K openings 30 days · 92.89% ±6.93 17.1K openings since tracking started · 92.89% ±6.93 17.1K openings 67.5% 86.0% 104.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate?window=24h) | 2,199 | 85.96% ±17.9 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate?window=7d) | 13.8K | 95.13% ±7.79 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate) | 17.1K | 92.89% ±6.93 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/checkmate?window=all) | 17.1K | 92.89% ±6.93 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $122 174 coins $7,622 10,889 coins 62.57x 2026-11-07 23:19 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $122 174 coins $7,622 10,889 coins 62.57x 2026-11-06 05:02 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $122 174 coins $7,622 10,889 coins 62.57x 2026-11-04 21:03 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) [Puga](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Puga) $122 174 coins $7,622 10,889 coins 62.57x 2026-11-04 13:39 UTC [★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Doppler (Factory New) (Black Pearl) StatTrak · knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/stattrak-butterfly-knife-doppler-factory-new-black-pearl) Hidden $122 174 coins $7,622 10,889 coins 62.57x 2026-11-03 20:22 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $122 174 coins $6,231 8,902 coins 51.15x 2026-11-11 12:40 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $122 174 coins $6,231 8,902 coins 51.15x 2026-11-10 20:13 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $122 174 coins $6,231 8,902 coins 51.15x 2026-11-10 07:29 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) Hidden $122 174 coins $6,231 8,902 coins 51.15x 2026-11-09 16:32 UTC [★ M9 Bayonet | Doppler (Minimal Wear) (Black Pearl) knife · covert · Black Pearl](https://gambatracker.com/items/m9-bayonet-doppler-minimal-wear-black-pearl) [jack.com](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/jack.com) $122 174 coins $6,231 8,902 coins 51.15x 2026-11-09 14:38 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=checkmate) [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) Hidden $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) Hidden $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) Hidden $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) Hidden $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) Hidden $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) [bradbeloved](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/bradbeloved) $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 13:01 UTC [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) Hidden $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) Hidden $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) Hidden $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC [Sticker | Clutch Or Kick sticker · #4b69ff](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-clutch-or-kick) Hidden $122 174 coins $0.06 0.08 coins 0.00x 2026-11-11 12:57 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $7,622 (62.57x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 92.9% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $92.89 on average: an expected loss of $7.11 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt