--- title: "Cheesy case on Rain.gg: odds, RTP & drops · gambatracker" description: "Cheesy ($5.54) on Rain.gg, a CS2 case site: no published odds, observed 97.14% over 4,796 openings in 30 days. Independent and free, no sign-up." url: https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy rendered: 2026-11-11T23:15Z --- [Case sites](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites) / [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) / [Cheesy](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy) # [Rain.gg](https://gambatracker.com/case-sites/rain) · Cheesy A case on Rain.gg, first seen 2 Nov 2026. Every value is Rain.gg's own item price converted from Rain coins at the rate on the site page. [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy?window=24h) [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy?window=7d) [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy) [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy?window=all) Price · $5.54 · 7.92 coins Advertised RTP · — · no catalog Observed RTP, 30d · 97.14% · 4,796 openings, sample method Variance · — · needs odds Tail share · — · needs odds Below price · — · needs odds ## Advertised vs observed · per window, 95% band and the advertised marker observed, 95% band outside band small sample 24 hours · 409 openings · below min 7 days · 93.98% ±9.46 3,938 openings 30 days · 97.14% ±8.58 4,796 openings since tracking started · 97.14% ±8.58 4,796 openings 65.0% 93.3% 121.5% ## Windows · the test per window | Window | Openings | Observed | Dev. | Method | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | [24h](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy?window=24h) | 409 | 93.21% ±27.7 | — | sample | | [7d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy?window=7d) | 3,938 | 93.98% ±9.46 | — | sample | | [30d](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy) | 4,796 | 97.14% ±8.58 | — | sample | | [All](https://gambatracker.com/cases/rain/cheesy?window=all) | 4,796 | 97.14% ±8.58 | — | sample | Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method). ## Items, odds and values · none published **No catalog** Rain.gg publishes no catalog; the case is known from the drops that named it. Values are Rain.gg's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. ## Biggest drops · from this case, by value [Sticker | tonyblack (Gold) | London 2018 sticker · Extraordinary](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-tonyblack-gold-london-2018) [Peoples](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/Peoples) $5.54 7.92 coins $338 483 coins 60.94x 2026-11-09 13:53 UTC ## Latest drops · newest first [All Latest drops →](https://gambatracker.com/drops?casino=rain&case=cheesy) [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $5.54 7.92 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [Paris 2023 Challengers Autograph Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/paris-2023-challengers-autograph-capsule) Hidden $5.54 7.92 coins $0.15 0.22 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [Paris 2023 Challengers Autograph Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/paris-2023-challengers-autograph-capsule) Hidden $5.54 7.92 coins $0.15 0.22 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [Sealed Graffiti | King Me (Tracer Yellow) graffiti · Common](https://gambatracker.com/items/sealed-graffiti-king-me-tracer-yellow) Hidden $5.54 7.92 coins $0.03 0.04 coins 0.01x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [Paris 2023 Challengers Autograph Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/paris-2023-challengers-autograph-capsule) Hidden $5.54 7.92 coins $0.15 0.22 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [Sticker | flamie | Atlanta 2017 sticker · High Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-flamie-atlanta-2017) [CeJay](https://gambatracker.com/players/rain/CeJay) $5.54 7.92 coins $3.63 5.18 coins 0.65x 2026-11-11 21:55 UTC [Paris 2023 Challengers Autograph Capsule container · Base Grade](https://gambatracker.com/items/paris-2023-challengers-autograph-capsule) Hidden $5.54 7.92 coins $0.15 0.22 coins 0.03x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [R8 Revolver | Banana Cannon (Field-Tested) weapon · Mythical](https://gambatracker.com/items/r8-revolver-banana-cannon-field-tested) Hidden $5.54 7.92 coins $0.28 0.4 coins 0.05x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred) weapon · restricted](https://gambatracker.com/items/famas-neural-net-battle-scarred) Hidden $5.54 7.92 coins $0.61 0.87 coins 0.11x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC [Sticker | MOUZ (Gold) | Rio 2022 sticker · red](https://gambatracker.com/items/sticker-mouz-gold-rio-2022) Hidden $5.54 7.92 coins $6.49 9.27 coins 1.17x 2026-11-11 21:54 UTC ## Catalog changes · price, advertised RTP and contents, per capture | Captured | Price | Advertised | Items | | --- | --- | --- | --- | Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one. listed best hit $338 (60.94x) 18+ **Case opening is gambling with skins as the currency.** At 97.1% RTP, every $100 put into cases returns $97.14 on average: an expected loss of $2.86 per $100, before any one lucky or unlucky opening. A big drop here says nothing about the next one. [BeGambleAware](https://www.begambleaware.org/) [Help & limits](https://gambatracker.com/responsible-gambling) How these figures are produced and labelled: https://gambatracker.com/llms.txt